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==Forsooth==
==Forsooth==
COLONEL ALDRIN:  Infinity and beyond.  (Laughter.)


THE PRESIDENT:  This is infinity here.  It could be infinity.  We don’t really don’t know.  But it could be.  It has to be something -- but it could be infinity, right?
==Quotations==
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,
folklore always wins in a rout.”
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div>


Okay.  (Applause.) 
----


<div align=right>in: [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/30/remarks-president-signing-executive-order-national-space-council Remarks by the President signing an Executive Order on the National Space Council] <br>
"Using scientific language and measurement doesn’t prevent a researcher from conducting flawed experiments and drawing wrong conclusions — especially when they confirm preconceptions."
Office of the White House Press Secretary, 30 June 2017. </div>


Suggested by Mike Olinick
<div align=right>-- Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Margaret Mitchell and Alexander Todoorov, quoted in: The racist history behind facial recognition, ''New York Times'', 10 July 2019</div>
 
==Quotations==


==In progress==
==In progress==
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jun/28/exaggerations-threaten-public-trust-in-science-leading-statistician-david-spiegelhalter
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/magazine/placebo-effect-medicine.html What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick?]<br>
 
by Gary Greenberg, ''New York Times Magazine'', 7 November 2018
==Tests for gerrymandering==
[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/opinion/sunday/let-math-save-our-democracy.html Let math save our democracy]<br>
by Sam Wang, ''New York Times'', 5 December 2015
 
[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/gerrymandering/ How gerrymandered is your Congressional district?]<br>
by Christopher Ingraham, ''Washington Post'',15 May 2014
 
appeal to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoperimetric_inequality isoperimetric inequality]: in the plane, a circle maximizes the area of a closed curve with a fixed perimeter.
 
[http://www.economist.com/node/1099030 How to rig an election]<br>
''Economist'', 25 April 2002
 
Subtitled: "In a normal democracy, voters choose their representatives. In America, it is rapidly becoming the other way around."
 
"Worst of all is the state's extraordinary 17th District, which is a crab (see chart). Though most of it lies in the western part of the state, two claws stretch out towards the eastern part to grab Democratic cities in order to make the surrounding 18th and 19th districts more reliably Republican."
 
"as used to be said of the old Texas 6th (which was a road from Houston to Dallas), that you could kill most of the constituents by driving down the road with the car doors open."


==Diet science==
[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/opinion/pretrial-ai.html The Problems With Risk Assessment Tools]<br>
[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/13/upshot/are-fats-unhealthy-the-battle-over-dietary-guidelines.html Are fats unhealthy? The battle over dietary guidelines]<br>  
by Chelsea Barabas, Karthik Dinakar and Colin Doyle, ''New York Times'', 17 July 2019
by Aaron E. Carroll, “Upshot” blog, ''New York Time''s, 12 October 2015.


Related “Upshot”:  [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/24/upshot/behind-new-dietary-guidelines-better-science.html Behind new dietary guidelines, better science],  February 23, 2015
==Hurricane Maria deaths==
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:


=="Random" seat assignment==
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br>
[http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/ryanairs-random-seat-allocation-not-random-scientists-35880337.html Ryanair's 'random' seat allocation not random - scientists]<br>
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018
by John von Radowitz, ''Irish Independent'', 30 June 2017


Ryanair is an Irish low-cost airline. This [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanair Wikipedia entry] notes
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies
that they have often faced criticism for misleading advertising.
   
Laura noted that
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br>
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018


The ''Irish Independent'' article concerns a recent controversyWhen customers book Ryanair flights, they can pay to select for particular seats,
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.
or else opt for "random" seat assignment, which is free.
Advertising on the airline's website says, "Can't stand the middle seat? Don't leave it
to chance, take your pick from a choice of seats. Get up to 50pc off
reserved seats with prices starting at £2."


But is it up to chance?  In light of [http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/1JB3yVCzRWB6HqG7tgfYj4X/ryanair customer complaints], the BBC consumer affairs show ''Watchdog'' asked for expert opinion from Oxford University.  To test the claim, researchers had four groups of four passengers book travel on four
President Trump has asserted that the actual number is
separate flights, all under the random seating optionOn every flight, all of the passengers got middle seats. The the odds of this happening
[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1040217897703026689 6 to 18].
were estimated at about 1:540,000,000.  Compare this to the 1:45,000,000 odds of winning the
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death tollThat work is not complete.
[http://www.murderousmaths.co.uk/books/bkmm6xlo.htm UK National Lottery] jackpot. Dr. Jennifer Rogers, director of Oxford University's Statistical
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]
Consultancy, is quoted as saying, "This is a highly controversial topic and my analysis
cast doubt on whether Ryanair's seat allocation can be purely random."


The article also includes a statement from Ryanair offering the following explanation which qualifies as an extended Forsooth!
:[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/?ex_cid=538twitter We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina]<br>
<blockquote>
:by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015
We haven't changed the random seat
allocation policy.
<br><br>
The reason for more middle seats being allocated is that more and more
passengers are taking our reserved seats (from just £2) and these
passengers overwhelmingly prefer aisle and window seats which is why
people who choose random (free of charge) seats are more likely to be
allocated middle seats.
<br><br>
Some random seat passengers are confused by the appearance of empty
seats beside them when they check-in up to four days prior to departure.
<br><br>
The reason they can't have these window or aisle seats is that these
are more likely to be selected by reserved seat passengers, many of whom
only check in 24 hours prior to departure.
<br><br>
Since our current load factor is 95pc, we have to keep these window and
aisle seats free to facilitate those customers who are willing to pay
(from £2) for them.
</blockquote>


Submitted by Patrick O'Beirne
----
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br>
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br>
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]
----
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018
----
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br>
''Economist'', 1 September 2018


==Chance of gun death==
[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned]
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/upshot/in-other-countries-youre-as-likely-to-be-killed-by-a-falling-object-as-a-gun.html?rref=upshot&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=The%20Upshot&pgtype=Multimedia
----
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]


[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]
-----
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]


==Some math doodles==
==Some math doodles==

Latest revision as of 20:58, 17 July 2019


Forsooth

Quotations

“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore, folklore always wins in a rout.”

-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), Academic Duty, Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17

"Using scientific language and measurement doesn’t prevent a researcher from conducting flawed experiments and drawing wrong conclusions — especially when they confirm preconceptions."

-- Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Margaret Mitchell and Alexander Todoorov, quoted in: The racist history behind facial recognition, New York Times, 10 July 2019

In progress

What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick?
by Gary Greenberg, New York Times Magazine, 7 November 2018

The Problems With Risk Assessment Tools
by Chelsea Barabas, Karthik Dinakar and Colin Doyle, New York Times, 17 July 2019

Hurricane Maria deaths

Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:

[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]
by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018

The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies

Laura noted that

Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.
by Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, 1 June 2018

The source of the 4645 figure is a NEJM article. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.

President Trump has asserted that the actual number is 6 to 18. The Post article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete. George Washington University study

We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina
by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015

These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.
Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season
Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone


Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed. Popular Science, 10 September 2018


Googling the news
Economist, 1 September 2018

We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned


Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy

[1]


Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.

Some math doodles

<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math>

<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math>

<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math>

<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math>

Accidental insights

My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.

While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash.

BrokenTile.jpg

As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.

Piece Sq. Inches % of Total
1 43.25 31.9%
2 35.25 26.0%
3 23.25 17.2%
4 14.10 10.4%
5 7.10 5.2%
6 4.70 3.5%
7 3.60 2.7%
8 3.03 2.2%
9 0.66 0.5%
10 0.61 0.5%
Montante plot1.png

The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”

Montante plot2.png

My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from Nature News on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions. Bill also provided a link to a vignette from CRAN describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.

Submitted by William Montante