https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_88&feed=atom&action=historyChance News 88 - Revision history2024-03-29T08:40:49ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.40.0-alphahttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_88&diff=21088&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Heeeeeeere's Johnny's birthday! */2016-08-23T13:23:57Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Heeeeeeere's Johnny's birthday!</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For the present piece, he has unearthed some wonderful [http://www.cornell.edu/video/?videoid=2334 archival video] of a Tonight Show episode from 1980, in which Johnny Carson</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For the present piece, he has unearthed some wonderful [http://www.cornell.edu/video/?videoid=2334 archival video] of a Tonight Show episode from 1980, in which Johnny Carson</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>and Ed McMahon attempt to validate the famous birthday problem probability using the studio audience. Alas, Ed inadvertently leads Johnny to confuse this with the "birthmate problem" (how</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>and Ed McMahon attempt to validate the famous <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">"</ins>birthday problem<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">' </ins>probability using the studio audience. Alas, Ed inadvertently leads Johnny to confuse this with the "birthmate problem" (how</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>many people do you need in a room to have a better than even chance of matching ''your'' birthday?). They wind up asking for the birthday of an audience member </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>many people do you need in a room to have a better than even chance of matching ''your'' birthday?). They wind up asking for the birthday of an audience member </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>seated in the front row, and are then (comically) puzzled when no one else shares that birthday. But do watch the video--a verbal description doesn't do justice to Johnny's inimitable style.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>seated in the front row, and are then (comically) puzzled when no one else shares that birthday. But do watch the video--a verbal description doesn't do justice to Johnny's inimitable style.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_88&diff=16745&oldid=prevBill Peterson at 21:08, 25 November 20122012-11-25T21:08:11Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>". . . the first time I was in a statistics course, I was there to teach it."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>". . . the first time I was in a statistics course, I was there to teach it."</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_88&diff=16744&oldid=prevBill Peterson at 21:08, 25 November 20122012-11-25T21:08:00Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>". . . the first time I was in a statistics course, I was there to teach it."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>". . . the first time I was in a statistics course, I was there to teach it."</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_88&diff=16632&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Correlation does not imply causation */2012-11-08T14:18:28Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Correlation does not imply causation</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This essay--subtitled "Why do people love to say that correlation does not imply causation?"--explores the origin of the phrase, and some pushback against its reflexive use in online debates.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This essay--subtitled "Why do people love to say that correlation does not imply causation?"--explores the origin of the phrase, and some pushback against its reflexive use in online debates.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Margaret Cibes culled these quotations:</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Margaret Cibes culled these quotations <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">from the article</ins>:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* "The correlation phrase has become so common [on Internet blogs] and so irritating that a minor backlash has now ensued against the rhetoric if not the concept. No, correlation does not imply causation, but it sure as hell provides a hint." </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* "The correlation phrase has become so common [on Internet blogs] and so irritating that a minor backlash has now ensued against the rhetoric if not the concept. No, correlation does not imply causation, but it sure as hell provides a hint." </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* "...but there's still another puzzle in the phrase. To say that correlation does not imply causation makes an important point about the limits of statistics, but there are other limits, too, and ones that scientists ignore with far more frequency. In <i>The Cult of Statistical Significance</i>, the economists … cite one of these and make an impassioned, book-length argument against the arbitrary cutoff [5 %] that decides which experimental findings count and which ones don't.”<br></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* "...but there's still another puzzle in the phrase. To say that correlation does not imply causation makes an important point about the limits of statistics, but there are other limits, too, and ones that scientists ignore with far more frequency. In <i>The Cult of Statistical Significance</i>, the economists … cite one of these and make an impassioned, book-length argument against the arbitrary cutoff [5 %] that decides which experimental findings count and which ones don't.”<br></div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_88&diff=16631&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Correlation does not imply causation */2012-11-08T14:17:47Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Correlation does not imply causation</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Margaret Cibes culled these quotations:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Margaret Cibes culled these quotations:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* "The correlation phrase has become so common [on Internet blogs] and so irritating that a minor backlash has now ensued against the rhetoric if not the concept. No, correlation does not imply causation, but it sure as hell provides a hint." </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* "The correlation phrase has become so common [on Internet blogs] and so irritating that a minor backlash has now ensued against the rhetoric if not the concept. No, correlation does not imply causation, but it sure as hell provides a hint." </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* "...<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">ut </del>there's still another puzzle in the phrase. To say that correlation does not imply causation makes an important point about the limits of statistics, but there are other limits, too, and ones that scientists ignore with far more frequency. In <i>The Cult of Statistical Significance</i>, the economists … cite one of these and make an impassioned, book-length argument against the arbitrary cutoff [5 %] that decides which experimental findings count and which ones don't.”<br></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* "...<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">but </ins>there's still another puzzle in the phrase. To say that correlation does not imply causation makes an important point about the limits of statistics, but there are other limits, too, and ones that scientists ignore with far more frequency. In <i>The Cult of Statistical Significance</i>, the economists … cite one of these and make an impassioned, book-length argument against the arbitrary cutoff [5 %] that decides which experimental findings count and which ones don't.”<br></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Is someone cooking the unemployment numbers?==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Is someone cooking the unemployment numbers?==</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_88&diff=16630&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Correlation does not imply causation */2012-11-08T14:17:35Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Correlation does not imply causation</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This essay--subtitled "Why do people love to say that correlation does not imply causation?"--explores the origin of the phrase, and some pushback against its reflexive use in online debates.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This essay--subtitled "Why do people love to say that correlation does not imply causation?"--explores the origin of the phrase, and some pushback against its reflexive use in online debates.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Margaret Cibes culled these quotations:</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* "The correlation phrase has become so common [on Internet blogs] and so irritating that a minor backlash has now ensued against the rhetoric if not the concept. No, correlation does not imply causation, but it sure as hell provides a hint." </ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* "...ut there's still another puzzle in the phrase. To say that correlation does not imply causation makes an important point about the limits of statistics, but there are other limits, too, and ones that scientists ignore with far more frequency. In <i>The Cult of Statistical Significance</i>, the economists … cite one of these and make an impassioned, book-length argument against the arbitrary cutoff [5 %] that decides which experimental findings count and which ones don't.”<br></ins></div></td></tr>
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</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_88&diff=16557&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Citizen-Statistician blog */2012-10-16T20:20:49Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Citizen-Statistician blog</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Citizen-Statistician blog==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Citizen-Statistician blog==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The [http://citizen-statistician.org Citizen-Statistican blog], subtitled "Learning to Swim in the Data Deluge" has recently been launched by Rob Gould, Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel and Andy Zieffler. Quoting from their [http://citizen-statistician.org/2012/09/26/introduction/ inaugural post] (26 September 2012):</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The [http://citizen-statistician.org Citizen-Statistican blog], subtitled "Learning to Swim in the Data Deluge<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">,</ins>" has recently been launched by Rob Gould, Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel and Andy Zieffler. Quoting from their [http://citizen-statistician.org/2012/09/26/introduction/ inaugural post] (26 September 2012):</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>We live in the Data Deluge, but we confess we still teach stats as if data were rare and easily-managed. But in this blog, we embrace the Deluge, an age where data and software are accessible and ubiquitous. The day of telling students to pay attention because Some Day This Will Be Good For You are over. This stuff is good for them NOW, and we need to show them why.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>We live in the Data Deluge, but we confess we still teach stats as if data were rare and easily-managed. But in this blog, we embrace the Deluge, an age where data and software are accessible and ubiquitous. The day of telling students to pay attention because Some Day This Will Be Good For You are over. This stuff is good for them NOW, and we need to show them why.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_88&diff=16556&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Is someone cooking the unemployment numbers? */2012-10-16T20:20:26Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Is someone cooking the unemployment numbers?</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Is someone cooking the unemployment numbers?==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Is someone cooking the unemployment numbers?==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/explaining-the-big-gain-in-job-getters/ Taming volatile Raw Data for Jobs Reports], Catherine Rampell, <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The </del>New York Times, October 5, 2012.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/explaining-the-big-gain-in-job-getters/ Taming volatile Raw Data for Jobs Reports], Catherine Rampell, <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">''</ins>New York Times<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">''</ins>, October 5, 2012.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The most recent unemployment data is good, with a reported unemployment rate below 8%. That has some people upset. Many conservatives (e.g., [http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/from-jack-welch-a-conspiracy-theory/ Jack Welch], [http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/05/joe-scarborough-jobs-report-numbers_n_1942430.html Joe Scarborough], [http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2012/10/05/santelli-smells-rat-i-told-you-theyd-get-it-under-8-they-did Rick Santelli]) expressed a concern that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may have cheated in order to help get President Obama re-elected.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The most recent unemployment data is good, with a reported unemployment rate below 8%. That has some people upset. Many conservatives (e.g., [http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/from-jack-welch-a-conspiracy-theory/ Jack Welch], [http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/05/joe-scarborough-jobs-report-numbers_n_1942430.html Joe Scarborough], [http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2012/10/05/santelli-smells-rat-i-told-you-theyd-get-it-under-8-they-did Rick Santelli]) expressed a concern that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may have cheated in order to help get President Obama re-elected.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_88&diff=16555&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Skewed polling */2012-10-16T20:19:12Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Skewed polling</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>asking, “In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?" Thus, rather than reflecting fixed percentages, party affiliation is itself dynamic. In other words, what Chambers interprets as an over-sampling of Democrats may instead reflect increasing support for the Democratic candidate. </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>asking, “In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?" Thus, rather than reflecting fixed percentages, party affiliation is itself dynamic. In other words, what Chambers interprets as an over-sampling of Democrats may instead reflect increasing support for the Democratic candidate. </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Newport reminds us that this issue is not new; it seems to come up in every election. See also Nate Silver's post [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/29/poll-averages-have-no-history-of-consistent-partisan-bias/ Poll averages have no history of consistent partisan bias] (FiveThirtyEight blog, ''New York Times'', 29 September 2012).</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Newport reminds us that this issue is not new; it seems to come up in every election <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">cycle</ins>. See also Nate Silver's post [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/29/poll-averages-have-no-history-of-consistent-partisan-bias/ Poll averages have no history of consistent partisan bias] (FiveThirtyEight blog, ''New York Times'', 29 September 2012).</div></td></tr>
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</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_88&diff=16554&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Skewed polling */2012-10-16T20:18:34Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Skewed polling</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Chambers has a website, [http://unskewedpolls.com UnskewedPolls], where he reanalyzes <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">polls </del>published by other organizations in order to adjust for </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Chambers has a website, [http://unskewedpolls.com UnskewedPolls], where he reanalyzes <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">polling data </ins>published by other organizations in order to adjust for </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>what he sees as inherent bias. A number of recent polls have shown President Obama with a lead in key swing states. Chambers challenges these results on the basis that respondents who self-identify as Democrats comprise too large a proportion of the sample. By reweighting the results to reflect what he asserts are the true </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>what he sees as inherent bias. A number of recent polls have shown President Obama with a lead in key swing states. Chambers challenges these results on the basis that respondents who self-identify as Democrats comprise too large a proportion of the sample. By reweighting the results to reflect what he asserts are the true </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>party proportions among all voters, Chambers finds that most polling data actually indicate that Romney is leading. Here is one example from the article</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>party proportions among all voters, Chambers finds that most polling data actually indicate that Romney is leading. Here is one example from the article</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Peterson