https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_81&feed=atom&action=historyChance News 81 - Revision history2024-03-28T22:59:48ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.40.0-alphahttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_81&diff=15906&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Some rules for science journalism */2012-05-09T19:05:59Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Some rules for science journalism</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>These will of course be familiar to many statisticians. Indeed, one of the comments on the ''Slate'' story directs readers to the very useful website [http://www.healthnewsreview.org/ HealthNewsReview.org], which has its own set of criteria for evaluating studies. </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>These will of course be familiar to many statisticians. Indeed, one of the comments on the ''Slate'' story directs readers to the very useful website [http://www.healthnewsreview.org/ HealthNewsReview.org], which has its own set of criteria for evaluating studies. </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Another comment points out the need for checking statistical claims in all news stories, not just those on medicine. In that vein, recall the recent [http://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_80#Polling_content_problems commentary on numerical literacy] from the WSJ Numbers Guy .</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Another comment points out the need for checking statistical claims in all news stories, not just those on medicine. In that vein, recall the recent [http://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_80#Polling_content_problems commentary on numerical literacy] from the WSJ Numbers Guy.</div></td></tr>
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</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_81&diff=15245&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Some rules for science journalism */2012-02-22T15:16:07Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Some rules for science journalism</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>On the subject of science communication, ''Slate'' reprinted this article from the ''New Scientist''. It is subtitled, "No false balance, no miracle cures, no opaque statistics …" <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">It </del>cites the alleged connection between MMR vaccine and autism as a prime example of what can go wrong when the press is not sufficiently skeptical in medical reporting (see [http://causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_70#Vaccines_and_autism:_Case_closed.3F CN 70] and earlier links there for the long history of debunking this claim).</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>On the subject of science communication, ''Slate'' reprinted this article from the ''New Scientist''. It is subtitled, "No false balance, no miracle cures, no opaque statistics …" <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The article </ins>cites the alleged connection between MMR vaccine and autism as a prime example of what can go wrong when the press is not sufficiently skeptical in medical reporting (see [http://causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_70#Vaccines_and_autism:_Case_closed.3F CN 70] and earlier links there for the long history of debunking this claim).</div></td></tr>
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</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_81&diff=15244&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Some rules for science journalism */2012-02-22T15:13:44Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Some rules for science journalism</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>These will of course be familiar to many statisticians. Indeed, one of the comments on the ''Slate'' story directs readers to the very useful website [http://www.healthnewsreview.org/ HealthNewsReview.org]. <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"> </del>Another comment <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">notes </del>the need for checking statistical claims in all stories, not just those on medicine. In that vein, recall the recent [http://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_80#Polling_content_problems commentary on numerical literacy] from the WSJ Numbers Guy .</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>These will of course be familiar to many statisticians. Indeed, one of the comments on the ''Slate'' story directs readers to the very useful website [http://www.healthnewsreview.org/ HealthNewsReview.org]<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, which has its own set of criteria for evaluating studies</ins>. </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Another comment <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">points out </ins>the need for checking statistical claims in all <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">news </ins>stories, not just those on medicine. In that vein, recall the recent [http://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_80#Polling_content_problems commentary on numerical literacy] from the WSJ Numbers Guy .</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_81&diff=15231&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Forsooth */2012-02-21T20:16:18Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Forsooth</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">http</del>:<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">//community.middlebury.edu/~wpeterso/Chance_News/images/CN81_FL_2012</del>.png</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[File</ins>:<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Msnbc_FL_2012</ins>.png<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">]]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Why even bother making a graph? [Laughing] I'm sorry. It looks like that is what, a third of 12,000? Not to scale….. The worst bar graph in the history of cable news.”</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Why even bother making a graph? [Laughing] I'm sorry. It looks like that is what, a third of 12,000? Not to scale….. The worst bar graph in the history of cable news.”</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_81&diff=15229&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* The problems with meta-analyses */2012-02-21T19:31:59Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">The problems with meta-analyses</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>#You are never told which studies the author rejects as not being acceptable for his/her meta-analysis, so you cannot form your own opinion as to the validity of rejecting those particular studies.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>#You are never told which studies the author rejects as not being acceptable for his/her meta-analysis, so you cannot form your own opinion as to the validity of rejecting those particular studies.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>#The problem of the Simpson Paradox, or the Yule-Simpson Effect: sometimes all the included studies point in one direction as being clinically significant, but the meta-analysis points in exactly the opposite direction. Numerous illustrations of the paradox have been discussed over the years in Chance News<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">; </del>[http://<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">www</del>.<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">dartmouth</del>.<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">edu</del>/<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">~chance</del>/<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_13.04.html</del>#<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">item7 </del>this <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">post from 2004</del>] <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">demonstrated </del>different ways of calculating Derek Jeter's batting average, with differing results, using the same data in each case.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>#The problem of the Simpson Paradox, or the Yule-Simpson Effect: sometimes all the included studies point in one direction as being clinically significant, but the meta-analysis points in exactly the opposite direction. Numerous illustrations of the paradox have been discussed over the years in Chance News<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">. Note also </ins>[http://<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">en</ins>.<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">wikipedia</ins>.<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">org</ins>/<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">wiki</ins>/<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Simpson's_paradox</ins>#<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Batting_averages </ins>this <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">example</ins>] <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">demonstrating </ins>different ways of calculating Derek Jeter's batting average, with differing results, using the same data in each case.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>#There are two different statistical models or assumptions by which the analyzer combines the effects of the individual studies: the fixed effects model and the random effects model. Each model makes different assumptions about the underlying statistical distribution of observed data, so each calculation produces different results.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>#There are two different statistical models or assumptions by which the analyzer combines the effects of the individual studies: the fixed effects model and the random effects model. Each model makes different assumptions about the underlying statistical distribution of observed data, so each calculation produces different results.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>#There are two different methods for measuring the effect of the clinical intervention: standardized mean difference or correlation. Each method produces a different end result.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>#There are two different methods for measuring the effect of the clinical intervention: standardized mean difference or correlation. Each method produces a different end result.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_81&diff=15228&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* NAS program on science communication */2012-02-21T19:29:36Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">NAS program on science communication</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Margaret Cibes wrote to call attention to an upcoming conference [http://www.nasonline.org/programs/sackler-colloquia/upcoming-colloquia/agenda-science-communication.html The Science of Science Communication], which takes place in May. It is sponsored by the National Academy of Science in their Sackler Colloquium series. This year's keynote address will be given by Daniel Kahneman. As Margaret notes, many of us have drawn classroom examples from the celebrated Kahneman-Tversky research on judgment under uncertainty.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Margaret Cibes wrote to call attention to an upcoming conference [http://www.nasonline.org/programs/sackler-colloquia/upcoming-colloquia/agenda-science-communication.html The Science of Science Communication], which takes place in May. It is sponsored by the National Academy of Science in their Sackler Colloquium series. This year's keynote address will be given by Daniel Kahneman. As Margaret notes, many of us have drawn classroom examples from the celebrated Kahneman-Tversky research on judgment under uncertainty.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Kahneman's latest book is ''Thinking, Fast and Slow''. It was reviewed last year in the ''New York Times'' (see [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/books/review/thinking-fast-and-slow-by-daniel-kahneman-book-review.html?pagewanted=all Two brains running], by Jim Holt, 21 November 2011). Among the examples discussed there is a Kahneman and Tversky's classic, the [http://causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_68#Paulos_on_probability Linda problem].</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Kahneman's latest book is ''Thinking, Fast and Slow''. It was reviewed last year in the ''New York Times'' (see [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/books/review/thinking-fast-and-slow-by-daniel-kahneman-book-review.html?pagewanted=all Two brains running], by Jim Holt, 21 November 2011). Among the examples discussed there is a Kahneman and Tversky's classic, the [http://<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">www.</ins>causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_68#Paulos_on_probability Linda problem].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Some rules for science journalism===</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Some rules for science journalism===</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_81&diff=15227&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* NAS program on science communication */2012-02-21T19:28:44Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">NAS program on science communication</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 19:28, 21 February 2012</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Margaret Cibes wrote to call attention to an upcoming conference [http://www.nasonline.org/programs/sackler-colloquia/upcoming-colloquia/agenda-science-communication.html The Science of Science Communication], which takes place in May. It is sponsored by the National Academy of Science in their Sackler Colloquium series. This year's keynote address will be given by Daniel Kahneman. As Margaret notes, many of us have drawn classroom examples from the celebrated Kahneman-Tversky research on judgment under uncertainty.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Margaret Cibes wrote to call attention to an upcoming conference [http://www.nasonline.org/programs/sackler-colloquia/upcoming-colloquia/agenda-science-communication.html The Science of Science Communication], which takes place in May. It is sponsored by the National Academy of Science in their Sackler Colloquium series. This year's keynote address will be given by Daniel Kahneman. As Margaret notes, many of us have drawn classroom examples from the celebrated Kahneman-Tversky research on judgment under uncertainty.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Kahneman's latest book is ''Thinking, Fast and Slow''. It was reviewed last year in the ''New York Times'' (see [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/books/review/thinking-fast-and-slow-by-daniel-kahneman-book-review.html?pagewanted=all Two brains running], by Jim Holt, 21 November 2011). Among the examples discussed there is a Kahneman and Tversky's classic, the [http://<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">test.</del>causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_68#Paulos_on_probability Linda problem].</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Kahneman's latest book is ''Thinking, Fast and Slow''. It was reviewed last year in the ''New York Times'' (see [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/books/review/thinking-fast-and-slow-by-daniel-kahneman-book-review.html?pagewanted=all Two brains running], by Jim Holt, 21 November 2011). Among the examples discussed there is a Kahneman and Tversky's classic, the [http://causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_68#Paulos_on_probability Linda problem].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Some rules for science journalism===</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Some rules for science journalism===</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_81&diff=15226&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Some rules for science journalism */2012-02-21T19:27:00Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Some rules for science journalism</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 19:27, 21 February 2012</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Fiona Fox, ''Slate'', 11 December 2011</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Fiona Fox, ''Slate'', 11 December 2011</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>On the subject of science communication, ''Slate'' reprinted this article from the ''New Scientist''. It is subtitled, "No false balance, no miracle cures, no opaque statistics …" It cites the alleged connection between MMR vaccine and autism as a prime example of what can go wrong when the press is not sufficiently skeptical in medical reporting (see [http://<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">www.</del>causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_70#Vaccines_and_autism:_Case_closed.3F CN 70] and earlier links there for the long history of debunking this claim).</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>On the subject of science communication, ''Slate'' reprinted this article from the ''New Scientist''. It is subtitled, "No false balance, no miracle cures, no opaque statistics …" It cites the alleged connection between MMR vaccine and autism as a prime example of what can go wrong when the press is not sufficiently skeptical in medical reporting (see [http://causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_70#Vaccines_and_autism:_Case_closed.3F CN 70] and earlier links there for the long history of debunking this claim).</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Reproduced below are some of the article's recommendations for reporting on medical studies:</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Reproduced below are some of the article's recommendations for reporting on medical studies:</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_81&diff=15225&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* NAS program on science communication */2012-02-21T19:24:21Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">NAS program on science communication</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Margaret Cibes wrote to call attention to an upcoming conference [http://www.nasonline.org/programs/sackler-colloquia/upcoming-colloquia/agenda-science-communication.html The Science of Science Communication], which takes place in May. It is sponsored by the National Academy of Science in their Sackler Colloquium series. This year's keynote address will be given by Daniel Kahneman. As Margaret notes, many of us have drawn classroom examples from the celebrated Kahneman-Tversky research on judgment under uncertainty.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Margaret Cibes wrote to call attention to an upcoming conference [http://www.nasonline.org/programs/sackler-colloquia/upcoming-colloquia/agenda-science-communication.html The Science of Science Communication], which takes place in May. It is sponsored by the National Academy of Science in their Sackler Colloquium series. This year's keynote address will be given by Daniel Kahneman. As Margaret notes, many of us have drawn classroom examples from the celebrated Kahneman-Tversky research on judgment under uncertainty.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Kahneman's latest book is ''Thinking, Fast and Slow''. It was reviewed last year in the ''New York Times'' (see [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/books/review/thinking-fast-and-slow-by-daniel-kahneman-book-review.html?pagewanted=all Two brains running], by Jim Holt, 21 November 2011). Among the examples discussed there is a Kahneman and Tversky's classic, the <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">"</del>Linda problem.<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">"</del></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Kahneman's latest book is ''Thinking, Fast and Slow''. It was reviewed last year in the ''New York Times'' (see [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/books/review/thinking-fast-and-slow-by-daniel-kahneman-book-review.html?pagewanted=all Two brains running], by Jim Holt, 21 November 2011). Among the examples discussed there is a Kahneman and Tversky's classic, the <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[http://test.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_68#Paulos_on_probability </ins>Linda problem<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">]</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Some rules for science journalism===</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Some rules for science journalism===</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_81&diff=15213&oldid=prevBill Peterson: /* Marilyn's correction on the drug-testing problem */2012-02-20T17:27:39Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Marilyn's correction on the drug-testing problem</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Marilyn vos Savant, ''Parade'', 22 January 2012</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>by Marilyn vos Savant, ''Parade'', 22 January 2012</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In a company with 400 employees, 25% are randomly selected every three months for drug testing. What is the chance that a particular employee is selected (at least once) during the year? As discussed in the [http://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_80#Marilyn_slips_up_on_a_drug_testing_question previous edition of Chance News], Marilyn misinterpreted this question in her first response, and simply asserted that the chance of being selected in any particular quarter remains 25% (this was already implicit in the original question). The correct answer to the question posed, as explained by several readers, is about 68%, which can be calculated as 1 minus the probability of not being selected: <math>1-(.75)^4 = .6836</math>. In the present column Marilyn provides her version of the correct solution:</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In a company with 400 employees, 25% are randomly selected every three months for drug testing. What is the chance that a particular employee is selected (at least once) during the year? As discussed in the [http://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_80#Marilyn_slips_up_on_a_drug_testing_question previous edition of Chance News], Marilyn misinterpreted this question in her first response, and simply asserted that the chance of being selected in any particular quarter remains 25% (this was already implicit in the original question). The correct answer to the question posed, as explained by several readers, is about 68%, which can be calculated as 1 minus the probability of not being selected: </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><center></ins><math>1-(.75)^4 = .6836</math<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">></center</ins>>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In the present column Marilyn provides her version of the correct solution:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><blockquote></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The reasoning works this way: Of the 400 names, 25 percent (100) are selected in the first quarter. Assume “perfect” randomization for the purpose of calculation: Of the 300 that weren’t chosen, 25 percent (75) would be selected in the second quarter. Of the 225 still-unchosen names, 25 percent (about 56) would be selected in the third. And of the 169 remaining unchosen names, 25 percent (about 42) would be selected in the fourth.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The reasoning works this way: Of the 400 names, 25 percent (100) are selected in the first quarter. Assume “perfect” randomization for the purpose of calculation: Of the 300 that weren’t chosen, 25 percent (75) would be selected in the second quarter. Of the 225 still-unchosen names, 25 percent (about 56) would be selected in the third. And of the 169 remaining unchosen names, 25 percent (about 42) would be selected in the fourth.</div></td></tr>
</table>Bill Peterson