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See Shermer's 13-minute TED Talk[http://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shermer_on_believing_strange_things.html], including a demonstration of a $900 “dowser” designed to find marijuana in kids’ lockers. Shermer states: <blockquote>Science is not a thing, it’s a verb. It’s a way of thinking about things. It’s a way of looking for natural explanations for all phenomena.</blockquote> | See Shermer's 13-minute TED Talk[http://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shermer_on_believing_strange_things.html], including a demonstration of a $900 “dowser” designed to find marijuana in kids’ lockers. Shermer states: <blockquote>Science is not a thing, it’s a verb. It’s a way of thinking about things. It’s a way of looking for natural explanations for all phenomena.</blockquote> | ||
==Question== | ===Question=== | ||
Shermer states: | Shermer states: | ||
<blockquote>[M]ost people have a very poor understanding of the laws of probability. …. The probability that two people in a room of thirty people will have the same birthday is .71.</blockquote> | <blockquote>[M]ost people have a very poor understanding of the laws of probability. …. The probability that two people in a room of thirty people will have the same birthday is .71.</blockquote> | ||
Revision as of 15:53, 26 December 2011
Quotations
Forsooth
Weirdness?
Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudo-Science, Superstition, and Other Confusions of Our Time
by Michael Shermer, MIF Books, 1997, p. 54
Shermer is founding publisher of Skeptic magazine and a Scientific American columnist. This book contains his list of “Twenty-five Fallacies That Lead Us to Believe Weird Things.” The fallacies are not new, but are well illustrated by many interesting historic and contemporary stories.
See Shermer's 13-minute TED Talk[1], including a demonstration of a $900 “dowser” designed to find marijuana in kids’ lockers. Shermer states:
Science is not a thing, it’s a verb. It’s a way of thinking about things. It’s a way of looking for natural explanations for all phenomena.
Question
Shermer states:
[M]ost people have a very poor understanding of the laws of probability. …. The probability that two people in a room of thirty people will have the same birthday is .71.
Ignoring issues such as leap years or twins, and assuming a uniform distribution of real-life birthdays, do you agree with the probability as stated – or could you modify the statement to make it more accurate?
Submitted by Margaret Cibes