https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_37&feed=atom&action=historyChance News 37 - Revision history2024-03-29T06:36:51ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.40.0-alphahttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_37&diff=13274&oldid=prevGavinj: /* Questions */2008-09-02T09:37:09Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Questions</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*** For example, The Washington Post's Sunday humor/wordplay contest, ran a challenge to [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/11/AR2005081100915.html write a four-line poem] incorporating any four or more successive WordCount words in order (but not necessarily adjacent). Can you use those results as an example of a logical link and how likely it is to occur?</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*** For example, The Washington Post's Sunday humor/wordplay contest, ran a challenge to [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/11/AR2005081100915.html write a four-line poem] incorporating any four or more successive WordCount words in order (but not necessarily adjacent). Can you use those results as an example of a logical link and how likely it is to occur?</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*** See [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_32#A_coincidence.3F A coincidenc?,] from [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_32 Chance News 32] for a related article.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*** See [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_32#A_coincidence.3F A coincidenc?,] from [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_32 Chance News 32] for a related article.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* While [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount] tracks the way we use language; [http://www.wordcount.org/querycount.php QueryCount] is a related website that tracks the way WordCount is used, by rearranging its word rankings based on the number of times each word has been queried by WordCount. So QueryCount contains statistics of search usage with WordCount.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* While [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount] tracks the way we use language; [http://www.wordcount.org/querycount.php QueryCount] is a related website that tracks the way WordCount is used, by rearranging its word rankings based on the number of times each word has been queried by WordCount. So QueryCount contains statistics of search usage with WordCount.<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><blockquote>WordCount tells us something we already know, but QueryCount lets us see something we suspect.</blockquote></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** What differences do you expect to find between these two distributions, if any? For example, how much more likely is it that your first name has a higher ranking in QueryCount than in WordCount, on the premise that people are more likely to look up their own name (contributing to its QueryCount ranking) than that word is likely to occur in the BNC (contributing to its WordCount ranking), which changes more slowly over time. Can you infer anything about how representative the BNC is of English language usage on the internet?</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** What differences do you expect to find between these two distributions, if any? For example, how much more likely is it that your first name has a higher ranking in QueryCount than in WordCount, on the premise that people are more likely to look up their own name (contributing to its QueryCount ranking) than that word is likely to occur in the BNC (contributing to its WordCount ranking), which changes more slowly over time. Can you infer anything about how representative the BNC is of English language usage on the internet?</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** How likely are you to find a word in [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount] that is not in [http://www.wordcount.org/querycount.php QueryCount?]</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** How likely are you to find a word in [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount] that is not in [http://www.wordcount.org/querycount.php QueryCount?]</div></td></tr>
</table>Gavinjhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_37&diff=5995&oldid=prevGavinj: /* Questions */2008-08-17T14:52:43Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Questions</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:52, 17 August 2008</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** What differences do you expect to find between these two distributions, if any? For example, how much more likely is it that your first name has a higher ranking in QueryCount than in WordCount, on the premise that people are more likely to look up their own name (contributing to its QueryCount ranking) than that word is likely to occur in the BNC (contributing to its WordCount ranking), which changes more slowly over time. Can you infer anything about how representative the BNC is of English language usage on the internet?</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** What differences do you expect to find between these two distributions, if any? For example, how much more likely is it that your first name has a higher ranking in QueryCount than in WordCount, on the premise that people are more likely to look up their own name (contributing to its QueryCount ranking) than that word is likely to occur in the BNC (contributing to its WordCount ranking), which changes more slowly over time. Can you infer anything about how representative the BNC is of English language usage on the internet?</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** How likely are you to find a word in [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount] that is not in [http://www.wordcount.org/querycount.php QueryCount?]</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** How likely are you to find a word in [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount] that is not in [http://www.wordcount.org/querycount.php QueryCount?]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">** Is Zipf's Law any less applicable to WordCount than to QueryCount?</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Further reading===</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>=== Further reading===</div></td></tr>
</table>Gavinjhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_37&diff=5877&oldid=prevGavinj: /* Questions */2008-08-17T14:51:00Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Questions</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:51, 17 August 2008</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** What can you infer from this about the distribution of word frequencies? </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** What can you infer from this about the distribution of word frequencies? </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** WordCount is a full enumeration of the BCN and the BCN is such a large sample, so does that mean that the estimates of word rankings are accurate? For example, six words chosen from [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_36 Chance News 36] included the word 'forsooth', which seems to be [http://sara.natcorp.ox.ac.uk/cgi-bin/saraWeb?qy=Forsooth in the BNC] five times but is not in [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount.] (The other five words and their rankings are listed above.)</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** WordCount is a full enumeration of the BCN and the BCN is such a large sample, so does that mean that the estimates of word rankings are accurate? For example, six words chosen from [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_36 Chance News 36] included the word 'forsooth', which seems to be [http://sara.natcorp.ox.ac.uk/cgi-bin/saraWeb?qy=Forsooth in the BNC] five times but is not in [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount.] (The other five words and their rankings are listed above.)</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** What other information would you like to have to investigate variations in word frequencies and where could you start looking? </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** What other information would you like to have to investigate variations in word frequencies and where could you start looking? For example, how might this article be related to [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zipf's_law Zipf's law]? </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">*** </del>For example, how might this article be related to [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zipf's_law Zipf's law]? <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">(</del>See <em>Why does Zipf's law play such an important role in languages?</em> from [http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_12.03.pdf Chance 12.03: May 2 to July 20] and [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Rules_of_engagement_-_modelling_conflict Rules of engagement - modelling conflict] from Chance News, July-August 2005.<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">)</del></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">*** </ins>See <em>Why does Zipf's law play such an important role in languages?</em> from [http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_12.03.pdf Chance 12.03: May 2 to July 20] and [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Rules_of_engagement_-_modelling_conflict Rules of engagement - modelling conflict] from Chance News, July-August 2005 <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">for previous Chance News articles on Zipf's Law</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* The layout presents the data (word counts) as a density distribution, with a lookup for individual work rankings. It doesn’t display word frequency or percentiles, would they be more helpful or informative than rankings? </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* The layout presents the data (word counts) as a density distribution, with a lookup for individual work rankings. It doesn’t display word frequency or percentiles, would they be more helpful or informative than rankings? </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* What is your estimate of the rank of words like 'chance' and 'probability' or 'statistician' and 'mathematician' in the BNC? </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* What is your estimate of the rank of words like 'chance' and 'probability' or 'statistician' and 'mathematician' in the BNC? </div></td></tr>
</table>Gavinjhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_37&diff=5876&oldid=prevGavinj: /* Questions */ link to zipf added.2008-08-17T14:40:13Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Questions: </span> link to zipf added.</span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:40, 17 August 2008</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l194">Line 194:</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** WordCount is a full enumeration of the BCN and the BCN is such a large sample, so does that mean that the estimates of word rankings are accurate? For example, six words chosen from [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_36 Chance News 36] included the word 'forsooth', which seems to be [http://sara.natcorp.ox.ac.uk/cgi-bin/saraWeb?qy=Forsooth in the BNC] five times but is not in [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount.] (The other five words and their rankings are listed above.)</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** WordCount is a full enumeration of the BCN and the BCN is such a large sample, so does that mean that the estimates of word rankings are accurate? For example, six words chosen from [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_36 Chance News 36] included the word 'forsooth', which seems to be [http://sara.natcorp.ox.ac.uk/cgi-bin/saraWeb?qy=Forsooth in the BNC] five times but is not in [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount.] (The other five words and their rankings are listed above.)</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** What other information would you like to have to investigate variations in word frequencies and where could you start looking? </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** What other information would you like to have to investigate variations in word frequencies and where could you start looking? </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">*** For example, how might this article be related to [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zipf's_law Zipf's law]? (See <em>Why does Zipf's law play such an important role in languages?</em> from [http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_12.03.pdf Chance 12.03: May 2 to July 20] and [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Rules_of_engagement_-_modelling_conflict Rules of engagement - modelling conflict] from Chance News, July-August 2005.)</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* The layout presents the data (word counts) as a density distribution, with a lookup for individual work rankings. It doesn’t display word frequency or percentiles, would they be more helpful or informative than rankings? </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* The layout presents the data (word counts) as a density distribution, with a lookup for individual work rankings. It doesn’t display word frequency or percentiles, would they be more helpful or informative than rankings? </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* What is your estimate of the rank of words like 'chance' and 'probability' or 'statistician' and 'mathematician' in the BNC? </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* What is your estimate of the rank of words like 'chance' and 'probability' or 'statistician' and 'mathematician' in the BNC? </div></td></tr>
</table>Gavinjhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_37&diff=5875&oldid=prevGavinj: /* Cold hit DNA matches */ missing </blockquote> at the end2008-07-02T10:38:19Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Cold hit DNA matches: </span> missing </blockquote> at the end</span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Of course it would have changed things," he said. "It would have changed a lot of things."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Of course it would have changed things," he said. "It would have changed a lot of things."</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></blockquote></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Laurie Snell</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Submitted by Laurie Snell</div></td></tr>
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</table>Gavinjhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_37&diff=5699&oldid=prevJls: /* Cold hit DNA matches */2008-06-27T19:03:36Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Cold hit DNA matches</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>So where did the 1 in 1.1 and 1 in 3 come from. The 1 in 1.1 million is an estimate of the probability that a dna randomly chosen from the population would have the same markers as the dna found at the seen of the crime. The article states that the 1/3 is the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person. In Puckett's case, it was 1 in 3</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>So where did the 1 in 1.1 and 1 in 3 come from. The 1 in 1.1 million is an estimate of the probability that a dna randomly chosen from the population would have the same markers as the dna found at the seen of the crime. The article states that the 1/3 is the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person. In Puckett's case, it was 1 in 3</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The difference between these two estimates is often explained in terms of the famous birthday problem. If you want to want to have about a 50% chance of finding someone with your birthday you would have to look at about 183 birthdays but if you just have a 50% chance for finding two people with the same birthday you have to only look at about <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">32 </del>birthdays.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The difference between these two estimates is often explained in terms of the famous birthday problem. If you want to want to have about a 50% chance of finding someone with your birthday you would have to look at about 183 birthdays but if you just have a 50% chance for finding two people with the same birthday you have to only look at about <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">23 </ins>birthdays.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For much more information about this topic read [http://www.stanford.edu/~kdevlin/Cold_Hit_Probabilities.pdf Scientific Heat about Cold Hits] by Keith Devlin.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For much more information about this topic read [http://www.stanford.edu/~kdevlin/Cold_Hit_Probabilities.pdf Scientific Heat about Cold Hits] by Keith Devlin.</div></td></tr>
</table>Jlshttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_37&diff=5688&oldid=prevGavinj: /* Questions */2008-06-15T15:01:22Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Questions</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Do you agree with the statement <em>observing closely ranked words tells us a great deal about our culture</em>?</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Do you agree with the statement <em>observing closely ranked words tells us a great deal about our culture</em>?</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** Find 'chance' in the rankings. How likely is it that there is a 'logical' link between 'chance' and its nearest neighbours? If you now expand the neighbourhood around 'chance', how quickly do you think your chances of finding a 'logical' link become? Would it matter if 'chance' could be substituted by equivalent conceptual words, like 'odds' or 'probability'? </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** Find 'chance' in the rankings. How likely is it that there is a 'logical' link between 'chance' and its nearest neighbours? If you now expand the neighbourhood around 'chance', how quickly do you think your chances of finding a 'logical' link become? Would it matter if 'chance' could be substituted by equivalent conceptual words, like 'odds' or 'probability'? </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*** For example, The Washington Post's Sunday humor/wordplay contest, ran a challenge to [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/11/AR2005081100915.html write a four-line poem] incorporating any four or more successive WordCount words in order (but not necessarily <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">adjacently</del>). Can you use those results as an example of a logical link and how likely it is to occur?</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*** For example, The Washington Post's Sunday humor/wordplay contest, ran a challenge to [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/11/AR2005081100915.html write a four-line poem] incorporating any four or more successive WordCount words in order (but not necessarily <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">adjacent</ins>). Can you use those results as an example of a logical link and how likely it is to occur?</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*** See [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_32#A_coincidence.3F A coincidenc?,] from [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_32 Chance News 32] for a related article.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>*** See [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_32#A_coincidence.3F A coincidenc?,] from [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_32 Chance News 32] for a related article.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* While [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount] tracks the way we use language; [http://www.wordcount.org/querycount.php QueryCount] is a related website that tracks the way WordCount is used, by rearranging its word rankings based on the number of times each word has been queried by WordCount. So QueryCount contains statistics of search usage with WordCount.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* While [http://www.wordcount.org/main.php WordCount] tracks the way we use language; [http://www.wordcount.org/querycount.php QueryCount] is a related website that tracks the way WordCount is used, by rearranging its word rankings based on the number of times each word has been queried by WordCount. So QueryCount contains statistics of search usage with WordCount.</div></td></tr>
</table>Gavinjhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_37&diff=5644&oldid=prevJls: /* Cold hit DNA matches */2008-06-07T20:00:34Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Cold hit DNA matches</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>databases, the random-match probability should be multiplied by N, the number</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>databases, the random-match probability should be multiplied by N, the number</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>of persons in the database</blockquote></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>of persons in the database</blockquote></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Presumeably this is the basis of the 1 in 3 probability above though even though this product is not a probability.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Presumeably this is the basis of the 1 in 3 probability above though even though this product is not a probability.</div></td></tr>
</table>Jlshttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_37&diff=5613&oldid=prevJls: /* Cold hit DNA matches */2008-06-07T19:58:09Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Cold hit DNA matches</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Of course it would have changed things," he said. "It would have changed a lot of things."</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>"Of course it would have changed things," he said. "It would have changed a lot of things."</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Submitted by Laurie Snell</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
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</table>Jlshttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_37&diff=5612&oldid=prevJls: /* Cold hit DNA matches */2008-06-07T19:56:47Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Cold hit DNA matches</span></span></p>
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</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l119">Line 119:</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As the name suggests a DNA database is a collection of a large number of people's dna. When a crime has been committed and the police have a DNA sample at the scene of the crime but no other evidence for who it is they look in a DNA database to see if there is a person in the database whose dna matches that found at the scene of the crime. To determine a match, a small number of segments in a dna called markers that are rarely the same for two randomly chosen people are identified. These markers form a profile. The FBI database uses 13 such markers for their profiles.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>As the name suggests a DNA database is a collection of a large number of people's dna. When a crime has been committed and the police have a DNA sample at the scene of the crime but no other evidence for who it is they look in a DNA database to see if there is a person in the database whose dna matches that found at the scene of the crime. To determine a match, a small number of segments in a dna called markers that are rarely the same for two randomly chosen people are identified. These markers form a profile. The FBI database uses 13 such markers for their profiles.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>So where did the 1 in 1.1 and 1 in 3 come from. The 1 in 1.1 million is an estimate of the probability that a dna randomly chosen from the population would have the same markers as the dna found at the seen of the crime. The article states that the 1/3 is the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person. In Puckett's case, it was 1 in 3<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, It is not clear to how what this means. More later</del></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>So where did the 1 in 1.1 and 1 in 3 come from. The 1 in 1.1 million is an estimate of the probability that a dna randomly chosen from the population would have the same markers as the dna found at the seen of the crime. The article states that the 1/3 is the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person. In Puckett's case, it was 1 in 3</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The difference between these two estimates is often explained in terms of the famous birthday problem. If you want to want to have about a 50% chance of finding someone with your birthday you would have to look at about 183 birthdays but if you just have a 50% chance for finding two people with the same birthday you have to only look at about 32 birthdays.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The difference between these two estimates is often explained in terms of the famous birthday problem. If you want to want to have about a 50% chance of finding someone with your birthday you would have to look at about 183 birthdays but if you just have a 50% chance for finding two people with the same birthday you have to only look at about 32 birthdays.</div></td></tr>
</table>Jls