Chance News 29: Difference between revisions

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The following Forsooth was suggested by Jerry Grossman.
The following Forsooth was suggested by Jerry Grossman.


<blockquote>In addition, a person's odds of becoming obese increased by 57 percent if he or she had a friend who became obese over a certain time interval. If the two people were mutual friends, the odds increased to 171 percent. <br> <div align=right [http://www.revolutionhealth.com/news/?id=hd-606718&msc=S36090  [Family, Friend May "Spread" Obesity]<br>200 http://www.revolutionhealth.com/news/?id=hd-606718&msc=S360906</div align=right>Revelusion Health, Ruly 25, 2007</blockquote>
<blockquote>In addition, a person's odds of becoming obese increased by 57 percent if he or she had a friend who became obese over a certain time interval. If the two people were mutual friends, the odds increased to 171 percent. <br> <div align=right [http://www.revolutionhealth.com/news/?id=hd-606718&msc=S36090  [Family, Friend May "Spread" Obesity]                     </div align=right>Revelusion Health, July 25, 2007</blockquote>





Revision as of 18:31, 3 August 2007

Quotations

"There are few things that are so unpardonably neglected in our country as poker. The upper class knows very little about it. Now and then you find ambassadors who have sort of a general knowledge of the game, but the ignorance of the people is fearful. Why, I have known clergymen, good men, kind-hearted, liberal, sincere, and all that, who did not know the meaning of a "flush." It is enough to make one ashamed of the species".

Mark Twain.

Forsooth

The following Forsooth was suggested by Jerry Grossman.

In addition, a person's odds of becoming obese increased by 57 percent if he or she had a friend who became obese over a certain time interval. If the two people were mutual friends, the odds increased to 171 percent.
<div align=right [Family, Friend May "Spread" Obesity Revelusion Health, July 25, 2007


"In addition, a person's odds of becoming obese increased by 57 percent if he or she had a friend who became obese over a certain time interval. If the two people were mutual friends, the odds increased to 171 percent."

Obviously the "to" in the last line should be "by". I heard this on the TV and then looked it up on their website (http://www.revolutionhealth.com/news/?id=hd-606718&msc=S36090)

The original article in The New England Journal of Medicine explains what is meant by "mutual friend" (it's not clear from the CNN account). It means that not only do you consider the obese person your friend, but she considers you her friend as well.

The NEJM article is interesting to those of us interested in the mathematical aspects of the social network.

Is Poker predominantly skill or luck?

Harvard ponders just what it takes to excel at poker
Wall Street Journal, May 3, 2007, A1
Neil King JR.

The article reports on a one day meeting in the Harvard Faculty Club of poker pros, game theorists, statisticians, law students and gambling lobbyist to develop a strategy to show that poker is not predominantly a game of chance.

In the article we read
"The skill debate has been a preoccupation in poker circles since September, when Congress barred the use of credit cards for online wagers. Horse racing and stock trading were exempt, but otherwise the new law hit any 'game predominantly subject to chance' Included among such games was poker, which is increasingly played on Internet sites hosting players from all over the world."

This, of course, is not a new issue. Before going on we encourage readers to read Mark Twains short story Science vs. Luck published in October 1870 issue of The Galaxy.The Galaxy was one of America's leading monthly magazine but it did not last long and when it folded co-founder William Conant Church became an editor for the Baltimore Sun and is better known today for his reply to 8 year old Virginia "Yes Virginia there is a Santa Clause" (,610,000 hits on Google.

In the Mark Twain story a number of boys were arrested for playing "old sledge" for money. Old sledge was a popular card game in those times. In the trial the judge finds that there half the experts say that old sledge is a game of science and half that it is a game of skill. The lawyer for the boys suggests: "Impanel a jury of six of each, Luck versus Science -- give them candles and a couple of decks of cards, send them into the jury room, and just abide by the result!"

The four deacons and the two dominies were sworn in as the "chance" jurymen, and six inveterate old seven-up professors were chosen to represent the "science" side of the issue. They retired to the jury room.

The professors ended up with all the money and the boys were found innocent.

Today more sophisticated ways to determine if a gambling game is predominantly skill or luck. Ryne Shereman written an article "Towards a Skill Ratio" in the May and June issue of the plus Two Internet Magazine.



To be continued

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