https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/api.php?action=feedcontributions&user=Bill+Peterson&feedformat=atomChanceWiki - User contributions [en]2024-03-28T08:22:32ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.40.0-alphahttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_112&diff=22461Chance News 1122019-07-26T15:32:16Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Reproducible research */</p>
<hr />
<div>August 21, 2017 to December 31, 2017<br />
==Quotations==<br />
"To gain control of the State Assembly, the authors estimate, Wisconsin Democrats would have to beat Republicans by 8 to 10 points, a margin rarely achieved in statewide elections by either party in this evenly split state. As a mathematician, I’m impressed. As a Wisconsin voter, I feel a little ill."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> -- Jordan Ellenberg, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
"There is a widespread — and fundamentally incorrect — belief that a probability of 60 percent or 75 percent or 90 percent means it’s gonna happen. It does not, any more than a die is broken if it rolls a one. Sometimes, a candidate with a 62 percent chance of winning well into election night (as Jones had for a time last night) will lose. Otherwise, the percentage wouldn’t be merely 62."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> --David Leonhardt, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html Roy Moore Is staying home], ''New York Times'', 13 December 2017</div><br />
<br />
Sugggested by Mike Olinick<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
"Of the 36 applicants that were interviewed, 20 were ultimately promoted... . Among the promoted individuals, 62 percent were female and 38 percent were male."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> in: [http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/woefully-thin-statistics-doom-adverse-41363/ “Woefully thin statistics” doom adverse impact claim], JDSUPRA.com, 24 August 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
The graphic below appears in: [https://www.inverse.com/article/36156-divorce-rate-study-americans-bartenders-flight-attendants New study reveals bartenders, casino workers most likely to get divorced], ''Inverse Culture'', 5 September 2017<br />
[[File:Divorce scatter.png|600px|frameless|center]]<br />
<br />
<br />
Note: The scatterplot was [http://flowingdata.com/2017/07/25/divorce-and-occupation originally created by ''FlowingData''], where the relationship is correctly<br />
described as "downward slopey." The caption above is from the ''Inverse Culture'' article (emphasis added).<br />
----<br />
Facebook advertises that it "can reach 41 million 18 to 24-year-olds in the United States and 60 million 25- to 34-year-olds." But according to the U.S. Census, there are only 31 million and 45 million total people in those two demographic groups. Details are in [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/business/media/facebook-advertisers.html this ''New York Times'' article.]<br />
<br />
Suggested by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Lecture on football probability==<br />
Margaret Cibes sent a link to the following YouTube video:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5FNHE_EcRA John Urschel-NFL Math Whiz: Real Sports Full Segment (HBO)]<br />
<br />
It features John Urschel, an offensive for the NFL's Baltimore Ravens, who is also studying applied mathematics at MIT. The video begins with John at a chalkboard using a decision tree to analyze a one-point vs. two-point conversion late in a football game.<br />
<br />
John is already a published mathematician, as described in [https://math.mit.edu/~urschel/notices.pdf this 2016 article] from the ''Notices of the AMS''.<br />
<br />
==Redefining statistical significance==<br />
[https://news.uchicago.edu/article/2017/09/01/scholars-take-aim-false-positives-research Scholars take aim at false positives in research]<br><br />
by Thomas Gaulkin, ''UChicagoNews'', 1 September 2017<br />
<br />
University Chicago economist John List is one of 72 collaborators whose commentary, <br />
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-017-0189-z.epdf?author_access_token=Eb6x88zTNQ7PuVxPt1CpXdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PlqY8PQKtlL9OP0czNSVZ5rodrqWv-lxLd4whdDH-qvHpF5PQtT1U4AblMVaKnbDH0ctY2yThyrB_ccetKNmK4sasDTgzcxT5_u2wTJ8C6sg%3D%3D Redfine statistical significance], was just published in ''Nature Human Behavior''. The subtitle reads, <br />
"We propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of <br />
new discoveries."<br />
<br />
See also:<br />
<br />
*[http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/3/9/160384 The natural selection of bad science]<br />
<br />
*[http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/it-will-be-much-harder-call-new-findings-significant-if-team-gets-its-way It will be much harder to call new findings ‘significant’ if this team gets its way]<br />
<br />
==How bad/good were the predictions about Hurricane Irma==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/us/forecast-irma-shift-florida.html Irma Shifting Forecast: It's All a Matter of Probability]. <br><br />
by John Schwartz, ''The New York Times'', September 10, 2017.<br />
<br />
How surprising is it that Irma is heading up the "wrong" coast of Florida? Well, it changed the plans of one expert.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miama and respected blogger on tropical storms and hurricanes, decided on Thursday to evacuate from South Florida with friends and his two dogs and drive to the Tampa area.</blockquote><br />
<br />
Dr. McNoldy ended up travelling back to Miami once the forecast changed, showing Irma smashing into the west coast of Florida rather than hitting Miami dead on.<br />
<br />
Was this a failure of the statistical model? Florida is such a skinny state that Dr. McNoldy admits that predicting where any hurricane will hit is problematic.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>"A hundred miles is the difference between the east coast and the west coast-but a hundred miles in a three-day forecast is really good."</blockquote><br />
<br />
More accurate forecasts are unlikely to come anytime soon. The problem is that people don't understand the depiction of uncertainty in the graphic models. The focus is on the line that runs down the middle and they ignore the variation about that line, the cone of probability.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>J. Marchall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia exlained the fallacy in a Facebook post. "Anywhere in that cone is a possibility," Dr. Shepherd wrote, "and it has always been a challenge communicating what the cone 'means' versus what people 'think" it means."</blockquote><br />
<br />
===Questions===<br />
<br />
1. There are different maps of the predicted paths of Irma [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/05/us/hurricane-irma-map.html here]. One shows a cone of probability and another shows 52 separate predictions of the hurricane's path. Which one better depicts the uncertainty of the prediction?<br />
<br />
2. Dr. Shepherd mentions in a Facebook post referenced by the New York Times article that people often confuse the concept of "percent probability of rain." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase?<br />
<br />
3. Hurricane Harvey reintroduced us to the term "500 year flood." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase.<br />
<br />
Submitted by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Harvey and the 500-year flood==<br />
[https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning The “500-year” flood, explained: why Houston was so underprepared for Hurricane Harvey]<br><br />
by Dara Lind, ''Vox'', 28 August 2017<br />
<br />
The subtitle notes that Hurricane Harvey has produced Houston's third “500-year” flood in the past three years.<br />
<br />
[https://www.wsj.com/articles/harveys-test-businesses-struggle-with-flawed-insurance-as-floods-multiply-1504022632 Harvey’s test: Businesses struggle with flawed insurance as floods multiply]<br><br />
by Ruth Simon and Cameron McWhirter, ''Wall Street Journal'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
"Twenty storms causing a billion dollars or more in damage have taken place since 2010, not including Hurricane Harvey, compared with nine billion-dollar floods in the full decade of the 1980s, according to inflation-adjusted estimates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration." <br />
<br />
Brigitte Baldi sent the following article from FiveThirtyEight to the StatEd e-mail list:<br />
<br />
[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/ It’s time To ditch the concept of ‘100-year floods’]<br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph?==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/learning/announcing-a-new-monthly-feature-whats-going-on-in-this-graph.html Announcing a new monthly feature: What’s going on in this graph?]<br><br />
by Michael Gonchar and Katherine Schulten, ''New York Times'', 6 September 2017<br />
<br />
This article announces a new feature on data visualization with a view towards enriching classroom discussions of statistics. The project is a [http://www.amstat.org/asa/News/ASA-Partners-with-New-York-Times-Learning-Network-to-Launch-Monthly-Statistics-Feature.aspx?utm_source=informz&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=asa&_zs=8jlOe1&_zl=4PAC4 partnership with the American Statistical Association]. The article says:<br />
<blockquote><br />
Teachers tell us these data visualizations are rich texts for classrooms across the curriculum, not just in the math or statistics class. Whether in a literature class analyzing [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/upshot/the-word-choices-that-explain-why-jane-austen-endures.html Jane Austen’s language], a science class considering [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/28/climate/more-frequent-extreme-summer-heat.html climate data], or a civics class studying [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html gerrymandering], teaching students how to read, interpret and question graphs, maps and charts is a key 21st-century skill.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
The inaugural post [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-19-2017.html? appeared on September 19] and features a [https://static01.nyt.com/images/2017/09/13/learning/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN-superJumbo-v2.png rainfall map] that was featured in coverage of Hurrican Harvey. Students are asked to consider the following questions<br />
*What do you notice? <br />
*What do you wonder? <br />
*What’s going on in this graph?<br />
They are also invited to participate in an online discussion facilitated by the ASA.<br />
<br />
(On a related note, the US Geological Survey's animated data visualization entitled [https://owi.usgs.gov/vizlab/hurricane-harvey/ Hurricane Harvey's Water Footprint].)<br />
<br />
==Monty Hall has died==<br />
Mike Olinick sent a link to the following:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/obituaries/monty-hall-dead-lets-make-a-deal.html Monty Hall, co-creator and host of ‘Let’s Make a Deal,’ dies at 96]<br><br />
:by Dennis Hevesi, ''New York Times'', 30 September 2017<br />
<br />
Statisticians know Monty's name from a notorious conditional probability problem. As described in the article:<br />
<blockquote><br />
“Let’s Make a Deal” became such a pop-culture phenomenon that it gave birth to a well-known brain-twister in probability, called [https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob-comb/dependent-events-precalc/v/monty-hall-problem “the Monty Hall Problem"]. This thought experiment involves three doors, two goats and a coveted prize and leads to a counterintuitive solution.<br />
</blockquote><br />
The problem is related to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox Bertrand's box paradox], which dates from the 19th century, but it exploded into public awareness as the Game Show Problem in a [http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ series of columns] from the 'Ask Marilyn' feature in ''Parade Magazine'' in 1990-1991. <br />
<br />
A ''New Yorker'' [http://www.art.com/products/p15063201204-sa-i6843508/tom-cheney-in-your-case-dave-there-s-a-choice-elective-surgery-outpatient-medicin.htm cartoon] inspired by the show was described by Laurie Snell in the [http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_1.01.html inaugural installment of the Chance Newsletter] in September 1992!<br />
<br />
==Gerrymandering==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html?_r=0 The new front in the gerrymandering wars: Democracy vs. math]<br><br />
by Emily Bazelton, ''New York Times'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
by Jordan Ellenberg, ''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017<br />
<br />
These two articles describes how analytical models have been used with great effect to maximize the partisan advantages of redistricting. Ellenberg cites the following research article<br />
<br />
:[https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.01596 Evaluating Partisan Gerrymandering in Wisconsin]<br><br />
:by Gregory Herschlaga, Robert Raviera, and Jonathan C. Mattingly<br />
<br />
Those authors analyzed a collection of potential Wisconsin electoral maps to demonstrate how extreme actual redistricting plan was in favor of Republicans.<br />
<br />
==Interpreting online product reviews==<br />
[https://qz.com/1059862/dont-base-your-amazon-purchases-on-the-number-of-reviews-a-product-has/ Don’t base all your Amazon purchases on the number of reviews a product has]<br><br />
by Corinne Purtill, ''Quartz'', 23 August 2017<br />
<br />
See also: [http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0956797617711291 The Love of Large Numbers: A Popularity Bias in Consumer Choice]<br />
<br />
==Campus speech survey==<br />
Here are two views of a controversial survey on student view about free speech.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-chilling-study-shows-how-hostile-college-students-are-toward-free-speech/2017/09/18/cbb1a234-9ca8-11e7-9083-fbfddf6804c2_story.html A chilling study shows how hostile college students are toward free speech], by Catherine Rampell, ''Washington Post'', 18 September 2018.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/22/college-free-speech-violence-survey-junk-science 'Junk science': experts cast doubt on widely cited college free speech survey], by Lois Beckett, ''Guardian'', 22 September 2017.<br />
<br />
==Dubious graphic on guns==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/us/politics/las-vegas-shooting-gun-claims-fact-check.html Spurious chart, data on N.R.A. spending mislead in gun debate]<br><br />
by Linda Qiu, ''New York Times'', 3 October 2017<br />
<br />
In the wake of the mass shooting in Las Vegas, there were naturally calls for more stringent gun controls. Pro-gun arguments revived a [http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-more-guns-less-gun-violence-between-1993-and-2013/ graphic from the American Enterprise Institute], purporting to show that the increased number of guns has led to less gun violence over the last two decades.<br />
<br />
===International comparisons===<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/07/world/americas/mass-shootings-us-international.html What explains U.S. mass shootings? International comparisons suggest an answer]<br><br />
by Max Fisher and Josh Keller , ''New York Times'', 7 November 2017<br />
<br />
In a section entitled "Factors that don't correlate" we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
If mental health made the difference, then data would show that Americans have more mental health problems than do people in other countries with fewer mass shootings. But the mental health care spending rate in the United States, the number of mental health professionals per capita and the rate of severe mental disorders are all in line with those of other wealthy countries.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==Power poses==<br />
On the Isolated Statisticians list, Albyn Jones sent a link to this story, noting that it features reproducible research and Andrew Gelman's blog.<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/magazine/when-the-revolution-came-for-amy-cuddy.html When the revolution came for Amy Cuddy]<br><br />
:''New York Times Magazine'', 18 October 2017<br />
<br />
Cuddy is known for a 2010 paper on [http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/dana_carney/power.poses.PS.2010.pdf the psychology of power poses], which she popularized in a TED talk entitled [https://www.ted.com/talks/amy_cuddy_your_body_language_shapes_who_you_are YOur body language may shape who you are].<br />
<br />
==Statistic of the year==<br />
[https://www.statslife.org.uk/news/3675-statistic-of-the-year-2017-winners-announced Statistic of the Year 2017: Winners announced]<br><br />
by "StatsLife" web news editor, Royal Statistical Society, 13 December 2017<br />
<br />
The post announces that<br />
"We are delighted to announce our first ever UK Statistic of the Year and International Statistic of the Year, a new initiative that celebrates how statistics can help us better understand the world around us."<br />
<br />
*The UK statistic is '''0.1%''', representing the percentage of land in the UK that is densely built upon.<br />
<br />
*The International Statistic is '''69''', the average number of Americans killed annually by lawnmowers---compared to the 2 deaths on average attributed by Islamic jihadists.<br />
<br />
[http://www.rss.org.uk/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_year/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_Year_.aspx Nominations are solicited] for the 2018 contest.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_112&diff=22460Chance News 1122019-07-26T15:31:43Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Reproducible research */</p>
<hr />
<div>August 21, 2017 to December 31, 2017<br />
==Quotations==<br />
"To gain control of the State Assembly, the authors estimate, Wisconsin Democrats would have to beat Republicans by 8 to 10 points, a margin rarely achieved in statewide elections by either party in this evenly split state. As a mathematician, I’m impressed. As a Wisconsin voter, I feel a little ill."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> -- Jordan Ellenberg, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
"There is a widespread — and fundamentally incorrect — belief that a probability of 60 percent or 75 percent or 90 percent means it’s gonna happen. It does not, any more than a die is broken if it rolls a one. Sometimes, a candidate with a 62 percent chance of winning well into election night (as Jones had for a time last night) will lose. Otherwise, the percentage wouldn’t be merely 62."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> --David Leonhardt, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html Roy Moore Is staying home], ''New York Times'', 13 December 2017</div><br />
<br />
Sugggested by Mike Olinick<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
"Of the 36 applicants that were interviewed, 20 were ultimately promoted... . Among the promoted individuals, 62 percent were female and 38 percent were male."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> in: [http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/woefully-thin-statistics-doom-adverse-41363/ “Woefully thin statistics” doom adverse impact claim], JDSUPRA.com, 24 August 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
The graphic below appears in: [https://www.inverse.com/article/36156-divorce-rate-study-americans-bartenders-flight-attendants New study reveals bartenders, casino workers most likely to get divorced], ''Inverse Culture'', 5 September 2017<br />
[[File:Divorce scatter.png|600px|frameless|center]]<br />
<br />
<br />
Note: The scatterplot was [http://flowingdata.com/2017/07/25/divorce-and-occupation originally created by ''FlowingData''], where the relationship is correctly<br />
described as "downward slopey." The caption above is from the ''Inverse Culture'' article (emphasis added).<br />
----<br />
Facebook advertises that it "can reach 41 million 18 to 24-year-olds in the United States and 60 million 25- to 34-year-olds." But according to the U.S. Census, there are only 31 million and 45 million total people in those two demographic groups. Details are in [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/business/media/facebook-advertisers.html this ''New York Times'' article.]<br />
<br />
Suggested by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Lecture on football probability==<br />
Margaret Cibes sent a link to the following YouTube video:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5FNHE_EcRA John Urschel-NFL Math Whiz: Real Sports Full Segment (HBO)]<br />
<br />
It features John Urschel, an offensive for the NFL's Baltimore Ravens, who is also studying applied mathematics at MIT. The video begins with John at a chalkboard using a decision tree to analyze a one-point vs. two-point conversion late in a football game.<br />
<br />
John is already a published mathematician, as described in [https://math.mit.edu/~urschel/notices.pdf this 2016 article] from the ''Notices of the AMS''.<br />
<br />
==Redefining statistical significance==<br />
[https://news.uchicago.edu/article/2017/09/01/scholars-take-aim-false-positives-research Scholars take aim at false positives in research]<br><br />
by Thomas Gaulkin, ''UChicagoNews'', 1 September 2017<br />
<br />
University Chicago economist John List is one of 72 collaborators whose commentary, <br />
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-017-0189-z.epdf?author_access_token=Eb6x88zTNQ7PuVxPt1CpXdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PlqY8PQKtlL9OP0czNSVZ5rodrqWv-lxLd4whdDH-qvHpF5PQtT1U4AblMVaKnbDH0ctY2yThyrB_ccetKNmK4sasDTgzcxT5_u2wTJ8C6sg%3D%3D Redfine statistical significance], was just published in ''Nature Human Behavior''. The subtitle reads, <br />
"We propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of <br />
new discoveries."<br />
<br />
See also:<br />
<br />
*[http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/3/9/160384 The natural selection of bad science]<br />
<br />
*[http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/it-will-be-much-harder-call-new-findings-significant-if-team-gets-its-way It will be much harder to call new findings ‘significant’ if this team gets its way]<br />
<br />
==How bad/good were the predictions about Hurricane Irma==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/us/forecast-irma-shift-florida.html Irma Shifting Forecast: It's All a Matter of Probability]. <br><br />
by John Schwartz, ''The New York Times'', September 10, 2017.<br />
<br />
How surprising is it that Irma is heading up the "wrong" coast of Florida? Well, it changed the plans of one expert.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miama and respected blogger on tropical storms and hurricanes, decided on Thursday to evacuate from South Florida with friends and his two dogs and drive to the Tampa area.</blockquote><br />
<br />
Dr. McNoldy ended up travelling back to Miami once the forecast changed, showing Irma smashing into the west coast of Florida rather than hitting Miami dead on.<br />
<br />
Was this a failure of the statistical model? Florida is such a skinny state that Dr. McNoldy admits that predicting where any hurricane will hit is problematic.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>"A hundred miles is the difference between the east coast and the west coast-but a hundred miles in a three-day forecast is really good."</blockquote><br />
<br />
More accurate forecasts are unlikely to come anytime soon. The problem is that people don't understand the depiction of uncertainty in the graphic models. The focus is on the line that runs down the middle and they ignore the variation about that line, the cone of probability.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>J. Marchall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia exlained the fallacy in a Facebook post. "Anywhere in that cone is a possibility," Dr. Shepherd wrote, "and it has always been a challenge communicating what the cone 'means' versus what people 'think" it means."</blockquote><br />
<br />
===Questions===<br />
<br />
1. There are different maps of the predicted paths of Irma [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/05/us/hurricane-irma-map.html here]. One shows a cone of probability and another shows 52 separate predictions of the hurricane's path. Which one better depicts the uncertainty of the prediction?<br />
<br />
2. Dr. Shepherd mentions in a Facebook post referenced by the New York Times article that people often confuse the concept of "percent probability of rain." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase?<br />
<br />
3. Hurricane Harvey reintroduced us to the term "500 year flood." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase.<br />
<br />
Submitted by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Harvey and the 500-year flood==<br />
[https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning The “500-year” flood, explained: why Houston was so underprepared for Hurricane Harvey]<br><br />
by Dara Lind, ''Vox'', 28 August 2017<br />
<br />
The subtitle notes that Hurricane Harvey has produced Houston's third “500-year” flood in the past three years.<br />
<br />
[https://www.wsj.com/articles/harveys-test-businesses-struggle-with-flawed-insurance-as-floods-multiply-1504022632 Harvey’s test: Businesses struggle with flawed insurance as floods multiply]<br><br />
by Ruth Simon and Cameron McWhirter, ''Wall Street Journal'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
"Twenty storms causing a billion dollars or more in damage have taken place since 2010, not including Hurricane Harvey, compared with nine billion-dollar floods in the full decade of the 1980s, according to inflation-adjusted estimates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration." <br />
<br />
Brigitte Baldi sent the following article from FiveThirtyEight to the StatEd e-mail list:<br />
<br />
[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/ It’s time To ditch the concept of ‘100-year floods’]<br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph?==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/learning/announcing-a-new-monthly-feature-whats-going-on-in-this-graph.html Announcing a new monthly feature: What’s going on in this graph?]<br><br />
by Michael Gonchar and Katherine Schulten, ''New York Times'', 6 September 2017<br />
<br />
This article announces a new feature on data visualization with a view towards enriching classroom discussions of statistics. The project is a [http://www.amstat.org/asa/News/ASA-Partners-with-New-York-Times-Learning-Network-to-Launch-Monthly-Statistics-Feature.aspx?utm_source=informz&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=asa&_zs=8jlOe1&_zl=4PAC4 partnership with the American Statistical Association]. The article says:<br />
<blockquote><br />
Teachers tell us these data visualizations are rich texts for classrooms across the curriculum, not just in the math or statistics class. Whether in a literature class analyzing [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/upshot/the-word-choices-that-explain-why-jane-austen-endures.html Jane Austen’s language], a science class considering [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/28/climate/more-frequent-extreme-summer-heat.html climate data], or a civics class studying [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html gerrymandering], teaching students how to read, interpret and question graphs, maps and charts is a key 21st-century skill.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
The inaugural post [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-19-2017.html? appeared on September 19] and features a [https://static01.nyt.com/images/2017/09/13/learning/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN-superJumbo-v2.png rainfall map] that was featured in coverage of Hurrican Harvey. Students are asked to consider the following questions<br />
*What do you notice? <br />
*What do you wonder? <br />
*What’s going on in this graph?<br />
They are also invited to participate in an online discussion facilitated by the ASA.<br />
<br />
(On a related note, the US Geological Survey's animated data visualization entitled [https://owi.usgs.gov/vizlab/hurricane-harvey/ Hurricane Harvey's Water Footprint].)<br />
<br />
==Monty Hall has died==<br />
Mike Olinick sent a link to the following:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/obituaries/monty-hall-dead-lets-make-a-deal.html Monty Hall, co-creator and host of ‘Let’s Make a Deal,’ dies at 96]<br><br />
:by Dennis Hevesi, ''New York Times'', 30 September 2017<br />
<br />
Statisticians know Monty's name from a notorious conditional probability problem. As described in the article:<br />
<blockquote><br />
“Let’s Make a Deal” became such a pop-culture phenomenon that it gave birth to a well-known brain-twister in probability, called [https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob-comb/dependent-events-precalc/v/monty-hall-problem “the Monty Hall Problem"]. This thought experiment involves three doors, two goats and a coveted prize and leads to a counterintuitive solution.<br />
</blockquote><br />
The problem is related to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox Bertrand's box paradox], which dates from the 19th century, but it exploded into public awareness as the Game Show Problem in a [http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ series of columns] from the 'Ask Marilyn' feature in ''Parade Magazine'' in 1990-1991. <br />
<br />
A ''New Yorker'' [http://www.art.com/products/p15063201204-sa-i6843508/tom-cheney-in-your-case-dave-there-s-a-choice-elective-surgery-outpatient-medicin.htm cartoon] inspired by the show was described by Laurie Snell in the [http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_1.01.html inaugural installment of the Chance Newsletter] in September 1992!<br />
<br />
==Gerrymandering==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html?_r=0 The new front in the gerrymandering wars: Democracy vs. math]<br><br />
by Emily Bazelton, ''New York Times'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
by Jordan Ellenberg, ''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017<br />
<br />
These two articles describes how analytical models have been used with great effect to maximize the partisan advantages of redistricting. Ellenberg cites the following research article<br />
<br />
:[https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.01596 Evaluating Partisan Gerrymandering in Wisconsin]<br><br />
:by Gregory Herschlaga, Robert Raviera, and Jonathan C. Mattingly<br />
<br />
Those authors analyzed a collection of potential Wisconsin electoral maps to demonstrate how extreme actual redistricting plan was in favor of Republicans.<br />
<br />
==Interpreting online product reviews==<br />
[https://qz.com/1059862/dont-base-your-amazon-purchases-on-the-number-of-reviews-a-product-has/ Don’t base all your Amazon purchases on the number of reviews a product has]<br><br />
by Corinne Purtill, ''Quartz'', 23 August 2017<br />
<br />
See also: [http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0956797617711291 The Love of Large Numbers: A Popularity Bias in Consumer Choice]<br />
<br />
==Campus speech survey==<br />
Here are two views of a controversial survey on student view about free speech.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-chilling-study-shows-how-hostile-college-students-are-toward-free-speech/2017/09/18/cbb1a234-9ca8-11e7-9083-fbfddf6804c2_story.html A chilling study shows how hostile college students are toward free speech], by Catherine Rampell, ''Washington Post'', 18 September 2018.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/22/college-free-speech-violence-survey-junk-science 'Junk science': experts cast doubt on widely cited college free speech survey], by Lois Beckett, ''Guardian'', 22 September 2017.<br />
<br />
==Dubious graphic on guns==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/us/politics/las-vegas-shooting-gun-claims-fact-check.html Spurious chart, data on N.R.A. spending mislead in gun debate]<br><br />
by Linda Qiu, ''New York Times'', 3 October 2017<br />
<br />
In the wake of the mass shooting in Las Vegas, there were naturally calls for more stringent gun controls. Pro-gun arguments revived a [http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-more-guns-less-gun-violence-between-1993-and-2013/ graphic from the American Enterprise Institute], purporting to show that the increased number of guns has led to less gun violence over the last two decades.<br />
<br />
===International comparisons===<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/07/world/americas/mass-shootings-us-international.html What explains U.S. mass shootings? International comparisons suggest an answer]<br><br />
by Max Fisher and Josh Keller , ''New York Times'', 7 November 2017<br />
<br />
In a section entitled "Factors that don't correlate" we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
If mental health made the difference, then data would show that Americans have more mental health problems than do people in other countries with fewer mass shootings. But the mental health care spending rate in the United States, the number of mental health professionals per capita and the rate of severe mental disorders are all in line with those of other wealthy countries.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==Reproducible research==<br />
On the Isolated Statisticians list, Albyn Jones sent a link to this story, noting that it features reproducible research and Andrew Gelman's blog.<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/magazine/when-the-revolution-came-for-amy-cuddy.html When the revolution came for Amy Cuddy]<br><br />
:''New York Times Magazine'', 18 October 2017<br />
<br />
Cuddy is known for a 2010 paper on [http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/dana_carney/power.poses.PS.2010.pdf the psychology of power poses], which she popularized in a TED talk entitled [https://www.ted.com/talks/amy_cuddy_your_body_language_shapes_who_you_are YOur body language may shape who you are].<br />
<br />
==Statistic of the year==<br />
[https://www.statslife.org.uk/news/3675-statistic-of-the-year-2017-winners-announced Statistic of the Year 2017: Winners announced]<br><br />
by "StatsLife" web news editor, Royal Statistical Society, 13 December 2017<br />
<br />
The post announces that<br />
"We are delighted to announce our first ever UK Statistic of the Year and International Statistic of the Year, a new initiative that celebrates how statistics can help us better understand the world around us."<br />
<br />
*The UK statistic is '''0.1%''', representing the percentage of land in the UK that is densely built upon.<br />
<br />
*The International Statistic is '''69''', the average number of Americans killed annually by lawnmowers---compared to the 2 deaths on average attributed by Islamic jihadists.<br />
<br />
[http://www.rss.org.uk/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_year/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_Year_.aspx Nominations are solicited] for the 2018 contest.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_112&diff=22459Chance News 1122019-07-26T15:30:14Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Reproducible research */</p>
<hr />
<div>August 21, 2017 to December 31, 2017<br />
==Quotations==<br />
"To gain control of the State Assembly, the authors estimate, Wisconsin Democrats would have to beat Republicans by 8 to 10 points, a margin rarely achieved in statewide elections by either party in this evenly split state. As a mathematician, I’m impressed. As a Wisconsin voter, I feel a little ill."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> -- Jordan Ellenberg, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
"There is a widespread — and fundamentally incorrect — belief that a probability of 60 percent or 75 percent or 90 percent means it’s gonna happen. It does not, any more than a die is broken if it rolls a one. Sometimes, a candidate with a 62 percent chance of winning well into election night (as Jones had for a time last night) will lose. Otherwise, the percentage wouldn’t be merely 62."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> --David Leonhardt, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html Roy Moore Is staying home], ''New York Times'', 13 December 2017</div><br />
<br />
Sugggested by Mike Olinick<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
"Of the 36 applicants that were interviewed, 20 were ultimately promoted... . Among the promoted individuals, 62 percent were female and 38 percent were male."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> in: [http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/woefully-thin-statistics-doom-adverse-41363/ “Woefully thin statistics” doom adverse impact claim], JDSUPRA.com, 24 August 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
The graphic below appears in: [https://www.inverse.com/article/36156-divorce-rate-study-americans-bartenders-flight-attendants New study reveals bartenders, casino workers most likely to get divorced], ''Inverse Culture'', 5 September 2017<br />
[[File:Divorce scatter.png|600px|frameless|center]]<br />
<br />
<br />
Note: The scatterplot was [http://flowingdata.com/2017/07/25/divorce-and-occupation originally created by ''FlowingData''], where the relationship is correctly<br />
described as "downward slopey." The caption above is from the ''Inverse Culture'' article (emphasis added).<br />
----<br />
Facebook advertises that it "can reach 41 million 18 to 24-year-olds in the United States and 60 million 25- to 34-year-olds." But according to the U.S. Census, there are only 31 million and 45 million total people in those two demographic groups. Details are in [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/business/media/facebook-advertisers.html this ''New York Times'' article.]<br />
<br />
Suggested by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Lecture on football probability==<br />
Margaret Cibes sent a link to the following YouTube video:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5FNHE_EcRA John Urschel-NFL Math Whiz: Real Sports Full Segment (HBO)]<br />
<br />
It features John Urschel, an offensive for the NFL's Baltimore Ravens, who is also studying applied mathematics at MIT. The video begins with John at a chalkboard using a decision tree to analyze a one-point vs. two-point conversion late in a football game.<br />
<br />
John is already a published mathematician, as described in [https://math.mit.edu/~urschel/notices.pdf this 2016 article] from the ''Notices of the AMS''.<br />
<br />
==Redefining statistical significance==<br />
[https://news.uchicago.edu/article/2017/09/01/scholars-take-aim-false-positives-research Scholars take aim at false positives in research]<br><br />
by Thomas Gaulkin, ''UChicagoNews'', 1 September 2017<br />
<br />
University Chicago economist John List is one of 72 collaborators whose commentary, <br />
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-017-0189-z.epdf?author_access_token=Eb6x88zTNQ7PuVxPt1CpXdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PlqY8PQKtlL9OP0czNSVZ5rodrqWv-lxLd4whdDH-qvHpF5PQtT1U4AblMVaKnbDH0ctY2yThyrB_ccetKNmK4sasDTgzcxT5_u2wTJ8C6sg%3D%3D Redfine statistical significance], was just published in ''Nature Human Behavior''. The subtitle reads, <br />
"We propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of <br />
new discoveries."<br />
<br />
See also:<br />
<br />
*[http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/3/9/160384 The natural selection of bad science]<br />
<br />
*[http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/it-will-be-much-harder-call-new-findings-significant-if-team-gets-its-way It will be much harder to call new findings ‘significant’ if this team gets its way]<br />
<br />
==How bad/good were the predictions about Hurricane Irma==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/us/forecast-irma-shift-florida.html Irma Shifting Forecast: It's All a Matter of Probability]. <br><br />
by John Schwartz, ''The New York Times'', September 10, 2017.<br />
<br />
How surprising is it that Irma is heading up the "wrong" coast of Florida? Well, it changed the plans of one expert.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miama and respected blogger on tropical storms and hurricanes, decided on Thursday to evacuate from South Florida with friends and his two dogs and drive to the Tampa area.</blockquote><br />
<br />
Dr. McNoldy ended up travelling back to Miami once the forecast changed, showing Irma smashing into the west coast of Florida rather than hitting Miami dead on.<br />
<br />
Was this a failure of the statistical model? Florida is such a skinny state that Dr. McNoldy admits that predicting where any hurricane will hit is problematic.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>"A hundred miles is the difference between the east coast and the west coast-but a hundred miles in a three-day forecast is really good."</blockquote><br />
<br />
More accurate forecasts are unlikely to come anytime soon. The problem is that people don't understand the depiction of uncertainty in the graphic models. The focus is on the line that runs down the middle and they ignore the variation about that line, the cone of probability.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>J. Marchall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia exlained the fallacy in a Facebook post. "Anywhere in that cone is a possibility," Dr. Shepherd wrote, "and it has always been a challenge communicating what the cone 'means' versus what people 'think" it means."</blockquote><br />
<br />
===Questions===<br />
<br />
1. There are different maps of the predicted paths of Irma [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/05/us/hurricane-irma-map.html here]. One shows a cone of probability and another shows 52 separate predictions of the hurricane's path. Which one better depicts the uncertainty of the prediction?<br />
<br />
2. Dr. Shepherd mentions in a Facebook post referenced by the New York Times article that people often confuse the concept of "percent probability of rain." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase?<br />
<br />
3. Hurricane Harvey reintroduced us to the term "500 year flood." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase.<br />
<br />
Submitted by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Harvey and the 500-year flood==<br />
[https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning The “500-year” flood, explained: why Houston was so underprepared for Hurricane Harvey]<br><br />
by Dara Lind, ''Vox'', 28 August 2017<br />
<br />
The subtitle notes that Hurricane Harvey has produced Houston's third “500-year” flood in the past three years.<br />
<br />
[https://www.wsj.com/articles/harveys-test-businesses-struggle-with-flawed-insurance-as-floods-multiply-1504022632 Harvey’s test: Businesses struggle with flawed insurance as floods multiply]<br><br />
by Ruth Simon and Cameron McWhirter, ''Wall Street Journal'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
"Twenty storms causing a billion dollars or more in damage have taken place since 2010, not including Hurricane Harvey, compared with nine billion-dollar floods in the full decade of the 1980s, according to inflation-adjusted estimates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration." <br />
<br />
Brigitte Baldi sent the following article from FiveThirtyEight to the StatEd e-mail list:<br />
<br />
[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/ It’s time To ditch the concept of ‘100-year floods’]<br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph?==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/learning/announcing-a-new-monthly-feature-whats-going-on-in-this-graph.html Announcing a new monthly feature: What’s going on in this graph?]<br><br />
by Michael Gonchar and Katherine Schulten, ''New York Times'', 6 September 2017<br />
<br />
This article announces a new feature on data visualization with a view towards enriching classroom discussions of statistics. The project is a [http://www.amstat.org/asa/News/ASA-Partners-with-New-York-Times-Learning-Network-to-Launch-Monthly-Statistics-Feature.aspx?utm_source=informz&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=asa&_zs=8jlOe1&_zl=4PAC4 partnership with the American Statistical Association]. The article says:<br />
<blockquote><br />
Teachers tell us these data visualizations are rich texts for classrooms across the curriculum, not just in the math or statistics class. Whether in a literature class analyzing [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/upshot/the-word-choices-that-explain-why-jane-austen-endures.html Jane Austen’s language], a science class considering [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/28/climate/more-frequent-extreme-summer-heat.html climate data], or a civics class studying [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html gerrymandering], teaching students how to read, interpret and question graphs, maps and charts is a key 21st-century skill.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
The inaugural post [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-19-2017.html? appeared on September 19] and features a [https://static01.nyt.com/images/2017/09/13/learning/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN-superJumbo-v2.png rainfall map] that was featured in coverage of Hurrican Harvey. Students are asked to consider the following questions<br />
*What do you notice? <br />
*What do you wonder? <br />
*What’s going on in this graph?<br />
They are also invited to participate in an online discussion facilitated by the ASA.<br />
<br />
(On a related note, the US Geological Survey's animated data visualization entitled [https://owi.usgs.gov/vizlab/hurricane-harvey/ Hurricane Harvey's Water Footprint].)<br />
<br />
==Monty Hall has died==<br />
Mike Olinick sent a link to the following:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/obituaries/monty-hall-dead-lets-make-a-deal.html Monty Hall, co-creator and host of ‘Let’s Make a Deal,’ dies at 96]<br><br />
:by Dennis Hevesi, ''New York Times'', 30 September 2017<br />
<br />
Statisticians know Monty's name from a notorious conditional probability problem. As described in the article:<br />
<blockquote><br />
“Let’s Make a Deal” became such a pop-culture phenomenon that it gave birth to a well-known brain-twister in probability, called [https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob-comb/dependent-events-precalc/v/monty-hall-problem “the Monty Hall Problem"]. This thought experiment involves three doors, two goats and a coveted prize and leads to a counterintuitive solution.<br />
</blockquote><br />
The problem is related to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox Bertrand's box paradox], which dates from the 19th century, but it exploded into public awareness as the Game Show Problem in a [http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ series of columns] from the 'Ask Marilyn' feature in ''Parade Magazine'' in 1990-1991. <br />
<br />
A ''New Yorker'' [http://www.art.com/products/p15063201204-sa-i6843508/tom-cheney-in-your-case-dave-there-s-a-choice-elective-surgery-outpatient-medicin.htm cartoon] inspired by the show was described by Laurie Snell in the [http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_1.01.html inaugural installment of the Chance Newsletter] in September 1992!<br />
<br />
==Gerrymandering==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html?_r=0 The new front in the gerrymandering wars: Democracy vs. math]<br><br />
by Emily Bazelton, ''New York Times'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
by Jordan Ellenberg, ''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017<br />
<br />
These two articles describes how analytical models have been used with great effect to maximize the partisan advantages of redistricting. Ellenberg cites the following research article<br />
<br />
:[https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.01596 Evaluating Partisan Gerrymandering in Wisconsin]<br><br />
:by Gregory Herschlaga, Robert Raviera, and Jonathan C. Mattingly<br />
<br />
Those authors analyzed a collection of potential Wisconsin electoral maps to demonstrate how extreme actual redistricting plan was in favor of Republicans.<br />
<br />
==Interpreting online product reviews==<br />
[https://qz.com/1059862/dont-base-your-amazon-purchases-on-the-number-of-reviews-a-product-has/ Don’t base all your Amazon purchases on the number of reviews a product has]<br><br />
by Corinne Purtill, ''Quartz'', 23 August 2017<br />
<br />
See also: [http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0956797617711291 The Love of Large Numbers: A Popularity Bias in Consumer Choice]<br />
<br />
==Campus speech survey==<br />
Here are two views of a controversial survey on student view about free speech.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-chilling-study-shows-how-hostile-college-students-are-toward-free-speech/2017/09/18/cbb1a234-9ca8-11e7-9083-fbfddf6804c2_story.html A chilling study shows how hostile college students are toward free speech], by Catherine Rampell, ''Washington Post'', 18 September 2018.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/22/college-free-speech-violence-survey-junk-science 'Junk science': experts cast doubt on widely cited college free speech survey], by Lois Beckett, ''Guardian'', 22 September 2017.<br />
<br />
==Dubious graphic on guns==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/us/politics/las-vegas-shooting-gun-claims-fact-check.html Spurious chart, data on N.R.A. spending mislead in gun debate]<br><br />
by Linda Qiu, ''New York Times'', 3 October 2017<br />
<br />
In the wake of the mass shooting in Las Vegas, there were naturally calls for more stringent gun controls. Pro-gun arguments revived a [http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-more-guns-less-gun-violence-between-1993-and-2013/ graphic from the American Enterprise Institute], purporting to show that the increased number of guns has led to less gun violence over the last two decades.<br />
<br />
===International comparisons===<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/07/world/americas/mass-shootings-us-international.html What explains U.S. mass shootings? International comparisons suggest an answer]<br><br />
by Max Fisher and Josh Keller , ''New York Times'', 7 November 2017<br />
<br />
In a section entitled "Factors that don't correlate" we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
If mental health made the difference, then data would show that Americans have more mental health problems than do people in other countries with fewer mass shootings. But the mental health care spending rate in the United States, the number of mental health professionals per capita and the rate of severe mental disorders are all in line with those of other wealthy countries.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==Reproducible research==<br />
On the Isolated Statisticians list, Albyn Jones sent a link to this story, noting that it features reproducible research and Andrew Gelman's blog.<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/magazine/when-the-revolution-came-for-amy-cuddy.html When the revolution came for Amy Cuddy]<br><br />
:''New York Times Magazine'', 18 October 2017<br />
<br />
Cuddy is known for a 2010 paper on [http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/dana_carney/power.poses.PS.2010.pdf the psychology of power poses] .<br />
<br />
==Statistic of the year==<br />
[https://www.statslife.org.uk/news/3675-statistic-of-the-year-2017-winners-announced Statistic of the Year 2017: Winners announced]<br><br />
by "StatsLife" web news editor, Royal Statistical Society, 13 December 2017<br />
<br />
The post announces that<br />
"We are delighted to announce our first ever UK Statistic of the Year and International Statistic of the Year, a new initiative that celebrates how statistics can help us better understand the world around us."<br />
<br />
*The UK statistic is '''0.1%''', representing the percentage of land in the UK that is densely built upon.<br />
<br />
*The International Statistic is '''69''', the average number of Americans killed annually by lawnmowers---compared to the 2 deaths on average attributed by Islamic jihadists.<br />
<br />
[http://www.rss.org.uk/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_year/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_Year_.aspx Nominations are solicited] for the 2018 contest.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_112&diff=22458Chance News 1122019-07-26T15:29:31Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Reproducible research */</p>
<hr />
<div>August 21, 2017 to December 31, 2017<br />
==Quotations==<br />
"To gain control of the State Assembly, the authors estimate, Wisconsin Democrats would have to beat Republicans by 8 to 10 points, a margin rarely achieved in statewide elections by either party in this evenly split state. As a mathematician, I’m impressed. As a Wisconsin voter, I feel a little ill."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> -- Jordan Ellenberg, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
"There is a widespread — and fundamentally incorrect — belief that a probability of 60 percent or 75 percent or 90 percent means it’s gonna happen. It does not, any more than a die is broken if it rolls a one. Sometimes, a candidate with a 62 percent chance of winning well into election night (as Jones had for a time last night) will lose. Otherwise, the percentage wouldn’t be merely 62."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> --David Leonhardt, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html Roy Moore Is staying home], ''New York Times'', 13 December 2017</div><br />
<br />
Sugggested by Mike Olinick<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
"Of the 36 applicants that were interviewed, 20 were ultimately promoted... . Among the promoted individuals, 62 percent were female and 38 percent were male."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> in: [http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/woefully-thin-statistics-doom-adverse-41363/ “Woefully thin statistics” doom adverse impact claim], JDSUPRA.com, 24 August 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
The graphic below appears in: [https://www.inverse.com/article/36156-divorce-rate-study-americans-bartenders-flight-attendants New study reveals bartenders, casino workers most likely to get divorced], ''Inverse Culture'', 5 September 2017<br />
[[File:Divorce scatter.png|600px|frameless|center]]<br />
<br />
<br />
Note: The scatterplot was [http://flowingdata.com/2017/07/25/divorce-and-occupation originally created by ''FlowingData''], where the relationship is correctly<br />
described as "downward slopey." The caption above is from the ''Inverse Culture'' article (emphasis added).<br />
----<br />
Facebook advertises that it "can reach 41 million 18 to 24-year-olds in the United States and 60 million 25- to 34-year-olds." But according to the U.S. Census, there are only 31 million and 45 million total people in those two demographic groups. Details are in [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/business/media/facebook-advertisers.html this ''New York Times'' article.]<br />
<br />
Suggested by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Lecture on football probability==<br />
Margaret Cibes sent a link to the following YouTube video:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5FNHE_EcRA John Urschel-NFL Math Whiz: Real Sports Full Segment (HBO)]<br />
<br />
It features John Urschel, an offensive for the NFL's Baltimore Ravens, who is also studying applied mathematics at MIT. The video begins with John at a chalkboard using a decision tree to analyze a one-point vs. two-point conversion late in a football game.<br />
<br />
John is already a published mathematician, as described in [https://math.mit.edu/~urschel/notices.pdf this 2016 article] from the ''Notices of the AMS''.<br />
<br />
==Redefining statistical significance==<br />
[https://news.uchicago.edu/article/2017/09/01/scholars-take-aim-false-positives-research Scholars take aim at false positives in research]<br><br />
by Thomas Gaulkin, ''UChicagoNews'', 1 September 2017<br />
<br />
University Chicago economist John List is one of 72 collaborators whose commentary, <br />
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-017-0189-z.epdf?author_access_token=Eb6x88zTNQ7PuVxPt1CpXdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PlqY8PQKtlL9OP0czNSVZ5rodrqWv-lxLd4whdDH-qvHpF5PQtT1U4AblMVaKnbDH0ctY2yThyrB_ccetKNmK4sasDTgzcxT5_u2wTJ8C6sg%3D%3D Redfine statistical significance], was just published in ''Nature Human Behavior''. The subtitle reads, <br />
"We propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of <br />
new discoveries."<br />
<br />
See also:<br />
<br />
*[http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/3/9/160384 The natural selection of bad science]<br />
<br />
*[http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/it-will-be-much-harder-call-new-findings-significant-if-team-gets-its-way It will be much harder to call new findings ‘significant’ if this team gets its way]<br />
<br />
==How bad/good were the predictions about Hurricane Irma==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/us/forecast-irma-shift-florida.html Irma Shifting Forecast: It's All a Matter of Probability]. <br><br />
by John Schwartz, ''The New York Times'', September 10, 2017.<br />
<br />
How surprising is it that Irma is heading up the "wrong" coast of Florida? Well, it changed the plans of one expert.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miama and respected blogger on tropical storms and hurricanes, decided on Thursday to evacuate from South Florida with friends and his two dogs and drive to the Tampa area.</blockquote><br />
<br />
Dr. McNoldy ended up travelling back to Miami once the forecast changed, showing Irma smashing into the west coast of Florida rather than hitting Miami dead on.<br />
<br />
Was this a failure of the statistical model? Florida is such a skinny state that Dr. McNoldy admits that predicting where any hurricane will hit is problematic.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>"A hundred miles is the difference between the east coast and the west coast-but a hundred miles in a three-day forecast is really good."</blockquote><br />
<br />
More accurate forecasts are unlikely to come anytime soon. The problem is that people don't understand the depiction of uncertainty in the graphic models. The focus is on the line that runs down the middle and they ignore the variation about that line, the cone of probability.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>J. Marchall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia exlained the fallacy in a Facebook post. "Anywhere in that cone is a possibility," Dr. Shepherd wrote, "and it has always been a challenge communicating what the cone 'means' versus what people 'think" it means."</blockquote><br />
<br />
===Questions===<br />
<br />
1. There are different maps of the predicted paths of Irma [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/05/us/hurricane-irma-map.html here]. One shows a cone of probability and another shows 52 separate predictions of the hurricane's path. Which one better depicts the uncertainty of the prediction?<br />
<br />
2. Dr. Shepherd mentions in a Facebook post referenced by the New York Times article that people often confuse the concept of "percent probability of rain." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase?<br />
<br />
3. Hurricane Harvey reintroduced us to the term "500 year flood." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase.<br />
<br />
Submitted by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Harvey and the 500-year flood==<br />
[https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning The “500-year” flood, explained: why Houston was so underprepared for Hurricane Harvey]<br><br />
by Dara Lind, ''Vox'', 28 August 2017<br />
<br />
The subtitle notes that Hurricane Harvey has produced Houston's third “500-year” flood in the past three years.<br />
<br />
[https://www.wsj.com/articles/harveys-test-businesses-struggle-with-flawed-insurance-as-floods-multiply-1504022632 Harvey’s test: Businesses struggle with flawed insurance as floods multiply]<br><br />
by Ruth Simon and Cameron McWhirter, ''Wall Street Journal'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
"Twenty storms causing a billion dollars or more in damage have taken place since 2010, not including Hurricane Harvey, compared with nine billion-dollar floods in the full decade of the 1980s, according to inflation-adjusted estimates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration." <br />
<br />
Brigitte Baldi sent the following article from FiveThirtyEight to the StatEd e-mail list:<br />
<br />
[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/ It’s time To ditch the concept of ‘100-year floods’]<br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph?==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/learning/announcing-a-new-monthly-feature-whats-going-on-in-this-graph.html Announcing a new monthly feature: What’s going on in this graph?]<br><br />
by Michael Gonchar and Katherine Schulten, ''New York Times'', 6 September 2017<br />
<br />
This article announces a new feature on data visualization with a view towards enriching classroom discussions of statistics. The project is a [http://www.amstat.org/asa/News/ASA-Partners-with-New-York-Times-Learning-Network-to-Launch-Monthly-Statistics-Feature.aspx?utm_source=informz&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=asa&_zs=8jlOe1&_zl=4PAC4 partnership with the American Statistical Association]. The article says:<br />
<blockquote><br />
Teachers tell us these data visualizations are rich texts for classrooms across the curriculum, not just in the math or statistics class. Whether in a literature class analyzing [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/upshot/the-word-choices-that-explain-why-jane-austen-endures.html Jane Austen’s language], a science class considering [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/28/climate/more-frequent-extreme-summer-heat.html climate data], or a civics class studying [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html gerrymandering], teaching students how to read, interpret and question graphs, maps and charts is a key 21st-century skill.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
The inaugural post [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-19-2017.html? appeared on September 19] and features a [https://static01.nyt.com/images/2017/09/13/learning/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN-superJumbo-v2.png rainfall map] that was featured in coverage of Hurrican Harvey. Students are asked to consider the following questions<br />
*What do you notice? <br />
*What do you wonder? <br />
*What’s going on in this graph?<br />
They are also invited to participate in an online discussion facilitated by the ASA.<br />
<br />
(On a related note, the US Geological Survey's animated data visualization entitled [https://owi.usgs.gov/vizlab/hurricane-harvey/ Hurricane Harvey's Water Footprint].)<br />
<br />
==Monty Hall has died==<br />
Mike Olinick sent a link to the following:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/obituaries/monty-hall-dead-lets-make-a-deal.html Monty Hall, co-creator and host of ‘Let’s Make a Deal,’ dies at 96]<br><br />
:by Dennis Hevesi, ''New York Times'', 30 September 2017<br />
<br />
Statisticians know Monty's name from a notorious conditional probability problem. As described in the article:<br />
<blockquote><br />
“Let’s Make a Deal” became such a pop-culture phenomenon that it gave birth to a well-known brain-twister in probability, called [https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob-comb/dependent-events-precalc/v/monty-hall-problem “the Monty Hall Problem"]. This thought experiment involves three doors, two goats and a coveted prize and leads to a counterintuitive solution.<br />
</blockquote><br />
The problem is related to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox Bertrand's box paradox], which dates from the 19th century, but it exploded into public awareness as the Game Show Problem in a [http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ series of columns] from the 'Ask Marilyn' feature in ''Parade Magazine'' in 1990-1991. <br />
<br />
A ''New Yorker'' [http://www.art.com/products/p15063201204-sa-i6843508/tom-cheney-in-your-case-dave-there-s-a-choice-elective-surgery-outpatient-medicin.htm cartoon] inspired by the show was described by Laurie Snell in the [http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_1.01.html inaugural installment of the Chance Newsletter] in September 1992!<br />
<br />
==Gerrymandering==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html?_r=0 The new front in the gerrymandering wars: Democracy vs. math]<br><br />
by Emily Bazelton, ''New York Times'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
by Jordan Ellenberg, ''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017<br />
<br />
These two articles describes how analytical models have been used with great effect to maximize the partisan advantages of redistricting. Ellenberg cites the following research article<br />
<br />
:[https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.01596 Evaluating Partisan Gerrymandering in Wisconsin]<br><br />
:by Gregory Herschlaga, Robert Raviera, and Jonathan C. Mattingly<br />
<br />
Those authors analyzed a collection of potential Wisconsin electoral maps to demonstrate how extreme actual redistricting plan was in favor of Republicans.<br />
<br />
==Interpreting online product reviews==<br />
[https://qz.com/1059862/dont-base-your-amazon-purchases-on-the-number-of-reviews-a-product-has/ Don’t base all your Amazon purchases on the number of reviews a product has]<br><br />
by Corinne Purtill, ''Quartz'', 23 August 2017<br />
<br />
See also: [http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0956797617711291 The Love of Large Numbers: A Popularity Bias in Consumer Choice]<br />
<br />
==Campus speech survey==<br />
Here are two views of a controversial survey on student view about free speech.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-chilling-study-shows-how-hostile-college-students-are-toward-free-speech/2017/09/18/cbb1a234-9ca8-11e7-9083-fbfddf6804c2_story.html A chilling study shows how hostile college students are toward free speech], by Catherine Rampell, ''Washington Post'', 18 September 2018.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/22/college-free-speech-violence-survey-junk-science 'Junk science': experts cast doubt on widely cited college free speech survey], by Lois Beckett, ''Guardian'', 22 September 2017.<br />
<br />
==Dubious graphic on guns==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/us/politics/las-vegas-shooting-gun-claims-fact-check.html Spurious chart, data on N.R.A. spending mislead in gun debate]<br><br />
by Linda Qiu, ''New York Times'', 3 October 2017<br />
<br />
In the wake of the mass shooting in Las Vegas, there were naturally calls for more stringent gun controls. Pro-gun arguments revived a [http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-more-guns-less-gun-violence-between-1993-and-2013/ graphic from the American Enterprise Institute], purporting to show that the increased number of guns has led to less gun violence over the last two decades.<br />
<br />
===International comparisons===<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/07/world/americas/mass-shootings-us-international.html What explains U.S. mass shootings? International comparisons suggest an answer]<br><br />
by Max Fisher and Josh Keller , ''New York Times'', 7 November 2017<br />
<br />
In a section entitled "Factors that don't correlate" we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
If mental health made the difference, then data would show that Americans have more mental health problems than do people in other countries with fewer mass shootings. But the mental health care spending rate in the United States, the number of mental health professionals per capita and the rate of severe mental disorders are all in line with those of other wealthy countries.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==Reproducible research==<br />
On the Isolated Statisticians list, Albyn Jones sent a link to this story, noting that it features reproducible research and Andrew Gelman's blog.<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/magazine/when-the-revolution-came-for-amy-cuddy.html When the revolution came for Amy Cuddy]<br><br />
:''New York Times Magazine'', 18 October 2017<br />
<br />
Cuddy is known for a [http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/dana_carney/power.poses.PS.2010.pdf] paper on the psychology of power poses.<br />
<br />
==Statistic of the year==<br />
[https://www.statslife.org.uk/news/3675-statistic-of-the-year-2017-winners-announced Statistic of the Year 2017: Winners announced]<br><br />
by "StatsLife" web news editor, Royal Statistical Society, 13 December 2017<br />
<br />
The post announces that<br />
"We are delighted to announce our first ever UK Statistic of the Year and International Statistic of the Year, a new initiative that celebrates how statistics can help us better understand the world around us."<br />
<br />
*The UK statistic is '''0.1%''', representing the percentage of land in the UK that is densely built upon.<br />
<br />
*The International Statistic is '''69''', the average number of Americans killed annually by lawnmowers---compared to the 2 deaths on average attributed by Islamic jihadists.<br />
<br />
[http://www.rss.org.uk/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_year/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_Year_.aspx Nominations are solicited] for the 2018 contest.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_112&diff=22457Chance News 1122019-07-26T15:29:16Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Reproducible research */</p>
<hr />
<div>August 21, 2017 to December 31, 2017<br />
==Quotations==<br />
"To gain control of the State Assembly, the authors estimate, Wisconsin Democrats would have to beat Republicans by 8 to 10 points, a margin rarely achieved in statewide elections by either party in this evenly split state. As a mathematician, I’m impressed. As a Wisconsin voter, I feel a little ill."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> -- Jordan Ellenberg, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
"There is a widespread — and fundamentally incorrect — belief that a probability of 60 percent or 75 percent or 90 percent means it’s gonna happen. It does not, any more than a die is broken if it rolls a one. Sometimes, a candidate with a 62 percent chance of winning well into election night (as Jones had for a time last night) will lose. Otherwise, the percentage wouldn’t be merely 62."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> --David Leonhardt, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html Roy Moore Is staying home], ''New York Times'', 13 December 2017</div><br />
<br />
Sugggested by Mike Olinick<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
"Of the 36 applicants that were interviewed, 20 were ultimately promoted... . Among the promoted individuals, 62 percent were female and 38 percent were male."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> in: [http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/woefully-thin-statistics-doom-adverse-41363/ “Woefully thin statistics” doom adverse impact claim], JDSUPRA.com, 24 August 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
The graphic below appears in: [https://www.inverse.com/article/36156-divorce-rate-study-americans-bartenders-flight-attendants New study reveals bartenders, casino workers most likely to get divorced], ''Inverse Culture'', 5 September 2017<br />
[[File:Divorce scatter.png|600px|frameless|center]]<br />
<br />
<br />
Note: The scatterplot was [http://flowingdata.com/2017/07/25/divorce-and-occupation originally created by ''FlowingData''], where the relationship is correctly<br />
described as "downward slopey." The caption above is from the ''Inverse Culture'' article (emphasis added).<br />
----<br />
Facebook advertises that it "can reach 41 million 18 to 24-year-olds in the United States and 60 million 25- to 34-year-olds." But according to the U.S. Census, there are only 31 million and 45 million total people in those two demographic groups. Details are in [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/business/media/facebook-advertisers.html this ''New York Times'' article.]<br />
<br />
Suggested by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Lecture on football probability==<br />
Margaret Cibes sent a link to the following YouTube video:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5FNHE_EcRA John Urschel-NFL Math Whiz: Real Sports Full Segment (HBO)]<br />
<br />
It features John Urschel, an offensive for the NFL's Baltimore Ravens, who is also studying applied mathematics at MIT. The video begins with John at a chalkboard using a decision tree to analyze a one-point vs. two-point conversion late in a football game.<br />
<br />
John is already a published mathematician, as described in [https://math.mit.edu/~urschel/notices.pdf this 2016 article] from the ''Notices of the AMS''.<br />
<br />
==Redefining statistical significance==<br />
[https://news.uchicago.edu/article/2017/09/01/scholars-take-aim-false-positives-research Scholars take aim at false positives in research]<br><br />
by Thomas Gaulkin, ''UChicagoNews'', 1 September 2017<br />
<br />
University Chicago economist John List is one of 72 collaborators whose commentary, <br />
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-017-0189-z.epdf?author_access_token=Eb6x88zTNQ7PuVxPt1CpXdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PlqY8PQKtlL9OP0czNSVZ5rodrqWv-lxLd4whdDH-qvHpF5PQtT1U4AblMVaKnbDH0ctY2yThyrB_ccetKNmK4sasDTgzcxT5_u2wTJ8C6sg%3D%3D Redfine statistical significance], was just published in ''Nature Human Behavior''. The subtitle reads, <br />
"We propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of <br />
new discoveries."<br />
<br />
See also:<br />
<br />
*[http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/3/9/160384 The natural selection of bad science]<br />
<br />
*[http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/it-will-be-much-harder-call-new-findings-significant-if-team-gets-its-way It will be much harder to call new findings ‘significant’ if this team gets its way]<br />
<br />
==How bad/good were the predictions about Hurricane Irma==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/us/forecast-irma-shift-florida.html Irma Shifting Forecast: It's All a Matter of Probability]. <br><br />
by John Schwartz, ''The New York Times'', September 10, 2017.<br />
<br />
How surprising is it that Irma is heading up the "wrong" coast of Florida? Well, it changed the plans of one expert.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miama and respected blogger on tropical storms and hurricanes, decided on Thursday to evacuate from South Florida with friends and his two dogs and drive to the Tampa area.</blockquote><br />
<br />
Dr. McNoldy ended up travelling back to Miami once the forecast changed, showing Irma smashing into the west coast of Florida rather than hitting Miami dead on.<br />
<br />
Was this a failure of the statistical model? Florida is such a skinny state that Dr. McNoldy admits that predicting where any hurricane will hit is problematic.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>"A hundred miles is the difference between the east coast and the west coast-but a hundred miles in a three-day forecast is really good."</blockquote><br />
<br />
More accurate forecasts are unlikely to come anytime soon. The problem is that people don't understand the depiction of uncertainty in the graphic models. The focus is on the line that runs down the middle and they ignore the variation about that line, the cone of probability.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>J. Marchall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia exlained the fallacy in a Facebook post. "Anywhere in that cone is a possibility," Dr. Shepherd wrote, "and it has always been a challenge communicating what the cone 'means' versus what people 'think" it means."</blockquote><br />
<br />
===Questions===<br />
<br />
1. There are different maps of the predicted paths of Irma [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/05/us/hurricane-irma-map.html here]. One shows a cone of probability and another shows 52 separate predictions of the hurricane's path. Which one better depicts the uncertainty of the prediction?<br />
<br />
2. Dr. Shepherd mentions in a Facebook post referenced by the New York Times article that people often confuse the concept of "percent probability of rain." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase?<br />
<br />
3. Hurricane Harvey reintroduced us to the term "500 year flood." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase.<br />
<br />
Submitted by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Harvey and the 500-year flood==<br />
[https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning The “500-year” flood, explained: why Houston was so underprepared for Hurricane Harvey]<br><br />
by Dara Lind, ''Vox'', 28 August 2017<br />
<br />
The subtitle notes that Hurricane Harvey has produced Houston's third “500-year” flood in the past three years.<br />
<br />
[https://www.wsj.com/articles/harveys-test-businesses-struggle-with-flawed-insurance-as-floods-multiply-1504022632 Harvey’s test: Businesses struggle with flawed insurance as floods multiply]<br><br />
by Ruth Simon and Cameron McWhirter, ''Wall Street Journal'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
"Twenty storms causing a billion dollars or more in damage have taken place since 2010, not including Hurricane Harvey, compared with nine billion-dollar floods in the full decade of the 1980s, according to inflation-adjusted estimates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration." <br />
<br />
Brigitte Baldi sent the following article from FiveThirtyEight to the StatEd e-mail list:<br />
<br />
[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/ It’s time To ditch the concept of ‘100-year floods’]<br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph?==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/learning/announcing-a-new-monthly-feature-whats-going-on-in-this-graph.html Announcing a new monthly feature: What’s going on in this graph?]<br><br />
by Michael Gonchar and Katherine Schulten, ''New York Times'', 6 September 2017<br />
<br />
This article announces a new feature on data visualization with a view towards enriching classroom discussions of statistics. The project is a [http://www.amstat.org/asa/News/ASA-Partners-with-New-York-Times-Learning-Network-to-Launch-Monthly-Statistics-Feature.aspx?utm_source=informz&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=asa&_zs=8jlOe1&_zl=4PAC4 partnership with the American Statistical Association]. The article says:<br />
<blockquote><br />
Teachers tell us these data visualizations are rich texts for classrooms across the curriculum, not just in the math or statistics class. Whether in a literature class analyzing [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/upshot/the-word-choices-that-explain-why-jane-austen-endures.html Jane Austen’s language], a science class considering [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/28/climate/more-frequent-extreme-summer-heat.html climate data], or a civics class studying [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html gerrymandering], teaching students how to read, interpret and question graphs, maps and charts is a key 21st-century skill.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
The inaugural post [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-19-2017.html? appeared on September 19] and features a [https://static01.nyt.com/images/2017/09/13/learning/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN-superJumbo-v2.png rainfall map] that was featured in coverage of Hurrican Harvey. Students are asked to consider the following questions<br />
*What do you notice? <br />
*What do you wonder? <br />
*What’s going on in this graph?<br />
They are also invited to participate in an online discussion facilitated by the ASA.<br />
<br />
(On a related note, the US Geological Survey's animated data visualization entitled [https://owi.usgs.gov/vizlab/hurricane-harvey/ Hurricane Harvey's Water Footprint].)<br />
<br />
==Monty Hall has died==<br />
Mike Olinick sent a link to the following:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/obituaries/monty-hall-dead-lets-make-a-deal.html Monty Hall, co-creator and host of ‘Let’s Make a Deal,’ dies at 96]<br><br />
:by Dennis Hevesi, ''New York Times'', 30 September 2017<br />
<br />
Statisticians know Monty's name from a notorious conditional probability problem. As described in the article:<br />
<blockquote><br />
“Let’s Make a Deal” became such a pop-culture phenomenon that it gave birth to a well-known brain-twister in probability, called [https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob-comb/dependent-events-precalc/v/monty-hall-problem “the Monty Hall Problem"]. This thought experiment involves three doors, two goats and a coveted prize and leads to a counterintuitive solution.<br />
</blockquote><br />
The problem is related to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox Bertrand's box paradox], which dates from the 19th century, but it exploded into public awareness as the Game Show Problem in a [http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ series of columns] from the 'Ask Marilyn' feature in ''Parade Magazine'' in 1990-1991. <br />
<br />
A ''New Yorker'' [http://www.art.com/products/p15063201204-sa-i6843508/tom-cheney-in-your-case-dave-there-s-a-choice-elective-surgery-outpatient-medicin.htm cartoon] inspired by the show was described by Laurie Snell in the [http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_1.01.html inaugural installment of the Chance Newsletter] in September 1992!<br />
<br />
==Gerrymandering==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html?_r=0 The new front in the gerrymandering wars: Democracy vs. math]<br><br />
by Emily Bazelton, ''New York Times'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
by Jordan Ellenberg, ''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017<br />
<br />
These two articles describes how analytical models have been used with great effect to maximize the partisan advantages of redistricting. Ellenberg cites the following research article<br />
<br />
:[https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.01596 Evaluating Partisan Gerrymandering in Wisconsin]<br><br />
:by Gregory Herschlaga, Robert Raviera, and Jonathan C. Mattingly<br />
<br />
Those authors analyzed a collection of potential Wisconsin electoral maps to demonstrate how extreme actual redistricting plan was in favor of Republicans.<br />
<br />
==Interpreting online product reviews==<br />
[https://qz.com/1059862/dont-base-your-amazon-purchases-on-the-number-of-reviews-a-product-has/ Don’t base all your Amazon purchases on the number of reviews a product has]<br><br />
by Corinne Purtill, ''Quartz'', 23 August 2017<br />
<br />
See also: [http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0956797617711291 The Love of Large Numbers: A Popularity Bias in Consumer Choice]<br />
<br />
==Campus speech survey==<br />
Here are two views of a controversial survey on student view about free speech.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-chilling-study-shows-how-hostile-college-students-are-toward-free-speech/2017/09/18/cbb1a234-9ca8-11e7-9083-fbfddf6804c2_story.html A chilling study shows how hostile college students are toward free speech], by Catherine Rampell, ''Washington Post'', 18 September 2018.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/22/college-free-speech-violence-survey-junk-science 'Junk science': experts cast doubt on widely cited college free speech survey], by Lois Beckett, ''Guardian'', 22 September 2017.<br />
<br />
==Dubious graphic on guns==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/us/politics/las-vegas-shooting-gun-claims-fact-check.html Spurious chart, data on N.R.A. spending mislead in gun debate]<br><br />
by Linda Qiu, ''New York Times'', 3 October 2017<br />
<br />
In the wake of the mass shooting in Las Vegas, there were naturally calls for more stringent gun controls. Pro-gun arguments revived a [http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-more-guns-less-gun-violence-between-1993-and-2013/ graphic from the American Enterprise Institute], purporting to show that the increased number of guns has led to less gun violence over the last two decades.<br />
<br />
===International comparisons===<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/07/world/americas/mass-shootings-us-international.html What explains U.S. mass shootings? International comparisons suggest an answer]<br><br />
by Max Fisher and Josh Keller , ''New York Times'', 7 November 2017<br />
<br />
In a section entitled "Factors that don't correlate" we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
If mental health made the difference, then data would show that Americans have more mental health problems than do people in other countries with fewer mass shootings. But the mental health care spending rate in the United States, the number of mental health professionals per capita and the rate of severe mental disorders are all in line with those of other wealthy countries.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==Reproducible research==<br />
On the Isolated Statisticians list, Albyn Jones sent a link to this story, noting that it features reproducible research and Andrew Gelman's blog.<br />
<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/magazine/when-the-revolution-came-for-amy-cuddy.html When the revolution came for Amy Cuddy]<br><br />
''New York Times Magazine'', 18 October 2017<br />
<br />
Cuddy is known for a [http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/dana_carney/power.poses.PS.2010.pdf] paper on the psychology of power poses.<br />
<br />
==Statistic of the year==<br />
[https://www.statslife.org.uk/news/3675-statistic-of-the-year-2017-winners-announced Statistic of the Year 2017: Winners announced]<br><br />
by "StatsLife" web news editor, Royal Statistical Society, 13 December 2017<br />
<br />
The post announces that<br />
"We are delighted to announce our first ever UK Statistic of the Year and International Statistic of the Year, a new initiative that celebrates how statistics can help us better understand the world around us."<br />
<br />
*The UK statistic is '''0.1%''', representing the percentage of land in the UK that is densely built upon.<br />
<br />
*The International Statistic is '''69''', the average number of Americans killed annually by lawnmowers---compared to the 2 deaths on average attributed by Islamic jihadists.<br />
<br />
[http://www.rss.org.uk/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_year/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_Year_.aspx Nominations are solicited] for the 2018 contest.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_112&diff=22456Chance News 1122019-07-26T15:27:24Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Dubious graphic on guns */</p>
<hr />
<div>August 21, 2017 to December 31, 2017<br />
==Quotations==<br />
"To gain control of the State Assembly, the authors estimate, Wisconsin Democrats would have to beat Republicans by 8 to 10 points, a margin rarely achieved in statewide elections by either party in this evenly split state. As a mathematician, I’m impressed. As a Wisconsin voter, I feel a little ill."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> -- Jordan Ellenberg, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
"There is a widespread — and fundamentally incorrect — belief that a probability of 60 percent or 75 percent or 90 percent means it’s gonna happen. It does not, any more than a die is broken if it rolls a one. Sometimes, a candidate with a 62 percent chance of winning well into election night (as Jones had for a time last night) will lose. Otherwise, the percentage wouldn’t be merely 62."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> --David Leonhardt, in: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html Roy Moore Is staying home], ''New York Times'', 13 December 2017</div><br />
<br />
Sugggested by Mike Olinick<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
"Of the 36 applicants that were interviewed, 20 were ultimately promoted... . Among the promoted individuals, 62 percent were female and 38 percent were male."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> in: [http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/woefully-thin-statistics-doom-adverse-41363/ “Woefully thin statistics” doom adverse impact claim], JDSUPRA.com, 24 August 2017</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
The graphic below appears in: [https://www.inverse.com/article/36156-divorce-rate-study-americans-bartenders-flight-attendants New study reveals bartenders, casino workers most likely to get divorced], ''Inverse Culture'', 5 September 2017<br />
[[File:Divorce scatter.png|600px|frameless|center]]<br />
<br />
<br />
Note: The scatterplot was [http://flowingdata.com/2017/07/25/divorce-and-occupation originally created by ''FlowingData''], where the relationship is correctly<br />
described as "downward slopey." The caption above is from the ''Inverse Culture'' article (emphasis added).<br />
----<br />
Facebook advertises that it "can reach 41 million 18 to 24-year-olds in the United States and 60 million 25- to 34-year-olds." But according to the U.S. Census, there are only 31 million and 45 million total people in those two demographic groups. Details are in [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/business/media/facebook-advertisers.html this ''New York Times'' article.]<br />
<br />
Suggested by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Lecture on football probability==<br />
Margaret Cibes sent a link to the following YouTube video:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5FNHE_EcRA John Urschel-NFL Math Whiz: Real Sports Full Segment (HBO)]<br />
<br />
It features John Urschel, an offensive for the NFL's Baltimore Ravens, who is also studying applied mathematics at MIT. The video begins with John at a chalkboard using a decision tree to analyze a one-point vs. two-point conversion late in a football game.<br />
<br />
John is already a published mathematician, as described in [https://math.mit.edu/~urschel/notices.pdf this 2016 article] from the ''Notices of the AMS''.<br />
<br />
==Redefining statistical significance==<br />
[https://news.uchicago.edu/article/2017/09/01/scholars-take-aim-false-positives-research Scholars take aim at false positives in research]<br><br />
by Thomas Gaulkin, ''UChicagoNews'', 1 September 2017<br />
<br />
University Chicago economist John List is one of 72 collaborators whose commentary, <br />
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-017-0189-z.epdf?author_access_token=Eb6x88zTNQ7PuVxPt1CpXdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PlqY8PQKtlL9OP0czNSVZ5rodrqWv-lxLd4whdDH-qvHpF5PQtT1U4AblMVaKnbDH0ctY2yThyrB_ccetKNmK4sasDTgzcxT5_u2wTJ8C6sg%3D%3D Redfine statistical significance], was just published in ''Nature Human Behavior''. The subtitle reads, <br />
"We propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of <br />
new discoveries."<br />
<br />
See also:<br />
<br />
*[http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/3/9/160384 The natural selection of bad science]<br />
<br />
*[http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/it-will-be-much-harder-call-new-findings-significant-if-team-gets-its-way It will be much harder to call new findings ‘significant’ if this team gets its way]<br />
<br />
==How bad/good were the predictions about Hurricane Irma==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/us/forecast-irma-shift-florida.html Irma Shifting Forecast: It's All a Matter of Probability]. <br><br />
by John Schwartz, ''The New York Times'', September 10, 2017.<br />
<br />
How surprising is it that Irma is heading up the "wrong" coast of Florida? Well, it changed the plans of one expert.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miama and respected blogger on tropical storms and hurricanes, decided on Thursday to evacuate from South Florida with friends and his two dogs and drive to the Tampa area.</blockquote><br />
<br />
Dr. McNoldy ended up travelling back to Miami once the forecast changed, showing Irma smashing into the west coast of Florida rather than hitting Miami dead on.<br />
<br />
Was this a failure of the statistical model? Florida is such a skinny state that Dr. McNoldy admits that predicting where any hurricane will hit is problematic.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>"A hundred miles is the difference between the east coast and the west coast-but a hundred miles in a three-day forecast is really good."</blockquote><br />
<br />
More accurate forecasts are unlikely to come anytime soon. The problem is that people don't understand the depiction of uncertainty in the graphic models. The focus is on the line that runs down the middle and they ignore the variation about that line, the cone of probability.<br />
<br />
<blockquote>J. Marchall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia exlained the fallacy in a Facebook post. "Anywhere in that cone is a possibility," Dr. Shepherd wrote, "and it has always been a challenge communicating what the cone 'means' versus what people 'think" it means."</blockquote><br />
<br />
===Questions===<br />
<br />
1. There are different maps of the predicted paths of Irma [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/05/us/hurricane-irma-map.html here]. One shows a cone of probability and another shows 52 separate predictions of the hurricane's path. Which one better depicts the uncertainty of the prediction?<br />
<br />
2. Dr. Shepherd mentions in a Facebook post referenced by the New York Times article that people often confuse the concept of "percent probability of rain." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase?<br />
<br />
3. Hurricane Harvey reintroduced us to the term "500 year flood." What are some of the potential misinterpretations of this phrase.<br />
<br />
Submitted by Steve Simon<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Harvey and the 500-year flood==<br />
[https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning The “500-year” flood, explained: why Houston was so underprepared for Hurricane Harvey]<br><br />
by Dara Lind, ''Vox'', 28 August 2017<br />
<br />
The subtitle notes that Hurricane Harvey has produced Houston's third “500-year” flood in the past three years.<br />
<br />
[https://www.wsj.com/articles/harveys-test-businesses-struggle-with-flawed-insurance-as-floods-multiply-1504022632 Harvey’s test: Businesses struggle with flawed insurance as floods multiply]<br><br />
by Ruth Simon and Cameron McWhirter, ''Wall Street Journal'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
"Twenty storms causing a billion dollars or more in damage have taken place since 2010, not including Hurricane Harvey, compared with nine billion-dollar floods in the full decade of the 1980s, according to inflation-adjusted estimates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration." <br />
<br />
Brigitte Baldi sent the following article from FiveThirtyEight to the StatEd e-mail list:<br />
<br />
[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/ It’s time To ditch the concept of ‘100-year floods’]<br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph?==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/learning/announcing-a-new-monthly-feature-whats-going-on-in-this-graph.html Announcing a new monthly feature: What’s going on in this graph?]<br><br />
by Michael Gonchar and Katherine Schulten, ''New York Times'', 6 September 2017<br />
<br />
This article announces a new feature on data visualization with a view towards enriching classroom discussions of statistics. The project is a [http://www.amstat.org/asa/News/ASA-Partners-with-New-York-Times-Learning-Network-to-Launch-Monthly-Statistics-Feature.aspx?utm_source=informz&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=asa&_zs=8jlOe1&_zl=4PAC4 partnership with the American Statistical Association]. The article says:<br />
<blockquote><br />
Teachers tell us these data visualizations are rich texts for classrooms across the curriculum, not just in the math or statistics class. Whether in a literature class analyzing [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/upshot/the-word-choices-that-explain-why-jane-austen-endures.html Jane Austen’s language], a science class considering [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/28/climate/more-frequent-extreme-summer-heat.html climate data], or a civics class studying [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html gerrymandering], teaching students how to read, interpret and question graphs, maps and charts is a key 21st-century skill.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
The inaugural post [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-19-2017.html? appeared on September 19] and features a [https://static01.nyt.com/images/2017/09/13/learning/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN/WGOITGraph09-19-17LN-superJumbo-v2.png rainfall map] that was featured in coverage of Hurrican Harvey. Students are asked to consider the following questions<br />
*What do you notice? <br />
*What do you wonder? <br />
*What’s going on in this graph?<br />
They are also invited to participate in an online discussion facilitated by the ASA.<br />
<br />
(On a related note, the US Geological Survey's animated data visualization entitled [https://owi.usgs.gov/vizlab/hurricane-harvey/ Hurricane Harvey's Water Footprint].)<br />
<br />
==Monty Hall has died==<br />
Mike Olinick sent a link to the following:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/obituaries/monty-hall-dead-lets-make-a-deal.html Monty Hall, co-creator and host of ‘Let’s Make a Deal,’ dies at 96]<br><br />
:by Dennis Hevesi, ''New York Times'', 30 September 2017<br />
<br />
Statisticians know Monty's name from a notorious conditional probability problem. As described in the article:<br />
<blockquote><br />
“Let’s Make a Deal” became such a pop-culture phenomenon that it gave birth to a well-known brain-twister in probability, called [https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/prob-comb/dependent-events-precalc/v/monty-hall-problem “the Monty Hall Problem"]. This thought experiment involves three doors, two goats and a coveted prize and leads to a counterintuitive solution.<br />
</blockquote><br />
The problem is related to [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox Bertrand's box paradox], which dates from the 19th century, but it exploded into public awareness as the Game Show Problem in a [http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ series of columns] from the 'Ask Marilyn' feature in ''Parade Magazine'' in 1990-1991. <br />
<br />
A ''New Yorker'' [http://www.art.com/products/p15063201204-sa-i6843508/tom-cheney-in-your-case-dave-there-s-a-choice-elective-surgery-outpatient-medicin.htm cartoon] inspired by the show was described by Laurie Snell in the [http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_1.01.html inaugural installment of the Chance Newsletter] in September 1992!<br />
<br />
==Gerrymandering==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/magazine/the-new-front-in-the-gerrymandering-wars-democracy-vs-math.html?_r=0 The new front in the gerrymandering wars: Democracy vs. math]<br><br />
by Emily Bazelton, ''New York Times'', 29 August 2017<br />
<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/06/opinion/sunday/computers-gerrymandering-wisconsin.html How computers turned gerrymandering into a science]<br><br />
by Jordan Ellenberg, ''Sunday Review'', ''New York Times'', 6 October 2017<br />
<br />
These two articles describes how analytical models have been used with great effect to maximize the partisan advantages of redistricting. Ellenberg cites the following research article<br />
<br />
:[https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.01596 Evaluating Partisan Gerrymandering in Wisconsin]<br><br />
:by Gregory Herschlaga, Robert Raviera, and Jonathan C. Mattingly<br />
<br />
Those authors analyzed a collection of potential Wisconsin electoral maps to demonstrate how extreme actual redistricting plan was in favor of Republicans.<br />
<br />
==Interpreting online product reviews==<br />
[https://qz.com/1059862/dont-base-your-amazon-purchases-on-the-number-of-reviews-a-product-has/ Don’t base all your Amazon purchases on the number of reviews a product has]<br><br />
by Corinne Purtill, ''Quartz'', 23 August 2017<br />
<br />
See also: [http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0956797617711291 The Love of Large Numbers: A Popularity Bias in Consumer Choice]<br />
<br />
==Campus speech survey==<br />
Here are two views of a controversial survey on student view about free speech.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-chilling-study-shows-how-hostile-college-students-are-toward-free-speech/2017/09/18/cbb1a234-9ca8-11e7-9083-fbfddf6804c2_story.html A chilling study shows how hostile college students are toward free speech], by Catherine Rampell, ''Washington Post'', 18 September 2018.<br />
<br />
*[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/22/college-free-speech-violence-survey-junk-science 'Junk science': experts cast doubt on widely cited college free speech survey], by Lois Beckett, ''Guardian'', 22 September 2017.<br />
<br />
==Dubious graphic on guns==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/us/politics/las-vegas-shooting-gun-claims-fact-check.html Spurious chart, data on N.R.A. spending mislead in gun debate]<br><br />
by Linda Qiu, ''New York Times'', 3 October 2017<br />
<br />
In the wake of the mass shooting in Las Vegas, there were naturally calls for more stringent gun controls. Pro-gun arguments revived a [http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-more-guns-less-gun-violence-between-1993-and-2013/ graphic from the American Enterprise Institute], purporting to show that the increased number of guns has led to less gun violence over the last two decades.<br />
<br />
===International comparisons===<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/07/world/americas/mass-shootings-us-international.html What explains U.S. mass shootings? International comparisons suggest an answer]<br><br />
by Max Fisher and Josh Keller , ''New York Times'', 7 November 2017<br />
<br />
In a section entitled "Factors that don't correlate" we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
If mental health made the difference, then data would show that Americans have more mental health problems than do people in other countries with fewer mass shootings. But the mental health care spending rate in the United States, the number of mental health professionals per capita and the rate of severe mental disorders are all in line with those of other wealthy countries.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==Reproducible research==<br />
On the Isolated Statisticians list, Albyn Jones sent a link to this story, noting that it features reproducible research and Andrew Gelman's blog.<br />
<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/magazine/when-the-revolution-came-for-amy-cuddy.html When the revolution came for Amy Cuddy]<br><br />
''New York Times Magazine'', 18 October 2017<br />
<br />
==Statistic of the year==<br />
[https://www.statslife.org.uk/news/3675-statistic-of-the-year-2017-winners-announced Statistic of the Year 2017: Winners announced]<br><br />
by "StatsLife" web news editor, Royal Statistical Society, 13 December 2017<br />
<br />
The post announces that<br />
"We are delighted to announce our first ever UK Statistic of the Year and International Statistic of the Year, a new initiative that celebrates how statistics can help us better understand the world around us."<br />
<br />
*The UK statistic is '''0.1%''', representing the percentage of land in the UK that is densely built upon.<br />
<br />
*The International Statistic is '''69''', the average number of Americans killed annually by lawnmowers---compared to the 2 deaths on average attributed by Islamic jihadists.<br />
<br />
[http://www.rss.org.uk/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_year/RSS/Get_involved/Statistic_of_the_Year_.aspx Nominations are solicited] for the 2018 contest.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22455Sandbox2019-07-17T20:58:31Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* In progress */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
"Using scientific language and measurement doesn’t prevent a researcher from conducting flawed experiments and drawing wrong conclusions — especially when they confirm preconceptions."<br />
<br />
<div align=right>-- Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Margaret Mitchell and Alexander Todoorov, quoted in: The racist history behind facial recognition, ''New York Times'', 10 July 2019</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/magazine/placebo-effect-medicine.html What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick?]<br><br />
by Gary Greenberg, ''New York Times Magazine'', 7 November 2018<br />
<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/opinion/pretrial-ai.html The Problems With Risk Assessment Tools]<br><br />
by Chelsea Barabas, Karthik Dinakar and Colin Doyle, ''New York Times'', 17 July 2019<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br><br />
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018<br />
<br />
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies<br />
<br />
Laura noted that <br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
President Trump has asserted that the actual number is<br />
[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1040217897703026689 6 to 18].<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
<br />
:[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/?ex_cid=538twitter We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina]<br><br />
:by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015<br />
<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned]<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22454Sandbox2019-07-15T12:45:23Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Hurricane Maria deaths */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
"Using scientific language and measurement doesn’t prevent a researcher from conducting flawed experiments and drawing wrong conclusions — especially when they confirm preconceptions."<br />
<br />
<div align=right>-- Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Margaret Mitchell and Alexander Todoorov, quoted in: The racist history behind facial recognition, ''New York Times'', 10 July 2019</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/magazine/placebo-effect-medicine.html What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick?]<br><br />
by Gary Greenberg, ''New York Times Magazine'', 7 November 2018<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br><br />
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018<br />
<br />
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies<br />
<br />
Laura noted that <br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
President Trump has asserted that the actual number is<br />
[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1040217897703026689 6 to 18].<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
<br />
:[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/?ex_cid=538twitter We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina]<br><br />
:by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015<br />
<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned]<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22453Sandbox2019-07-15T12:44:34Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Quotations */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
"Using scientific language and measurement doesn’t prevent a researcher from conducting flawed experiments and drawing wrong conclusions — especially when they confirm preconceptions."<br />
<br />
<div align=right>-- Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Margaret Mitchell and Alexander Todoorov, quoted in: The racist history behind facial recognition, ''New York Times'', 10 July 2019</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/magazine/placebo-effect-medicine.html What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick?]<br><br />
by Gary Greenberg, ''New York Times Magazine'', 7 November 2018<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br><br />
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018<br />
<br />
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies<br />
<br />
Laura noted that <br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
President Trump has asserted that the actual number sis[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1040217897703026689 6 to 18].<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
<br />
:[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/?ex_cid=538twitter We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina]<br><br />
:by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015<br />
<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned]<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22452Sandbox2019-07-15T12:44:22Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Quotations */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
---<br />
"Using scientific language and measurement doesn’t prevent a researcher from conducting flawed experiments and drawing wrong conclusions — especially when they confirm preconceptions."<br />
<br />
<div align=right>-- Blaise Agüera y Arcas, Margaret Mitchell and Alexander Todoorov, quoted in: The racist history behind facial recognition, ''New York Times'', 10 July 2019</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/magazine/placebo-effect-medicine.html What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick?]<br><br />
by Gary Greenberg, ''New York Times Magazine'', 7 November 2018<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br><br />
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018<br />
<br />
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies<br />
<br />
Laura noted that <br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
President Trump has asserted that the actual number sis[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1040217897703026689 6 to 18].<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
<br />
:[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/?ex_cid=538twitter We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina]<br><br />
:by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015<br />
<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned]<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Previous_Chance_News&diff=22451Previous Chance News2019-05-05T18:48:29Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>*[[Chance News 113]]: 1/1/18 to 6/30/18 <br />
*[[Chance News 112]]: 8/21/17 to 12/31/17 <br />
*[[Chance News 111]]: 7/1/17 to 8/20/17<br />
*[[Chance News 110]]: 1/1/17 to 6/30/17<br />
*[[Chance News 109]]: 7/1/16 to 12/31/16 <br />
*[[Chance News 108]]: 1/1/16 to 6/30/16<br />
<br />
----<br />
*[[Chance News 107]]: 9/13/2015 to 12/31/2015<br />
*[[Chance News 106]]: 7/21/2015 to 9/12/2015<br />
*[[Chance News 105]]: 5/16/2015 to 7/20/2015 <br />
*[[Chance News 104]]: 3/1/2015 to 5/15/2015<br />
*[[Chance News 103]]: 1/1/2015 to 2/28/2015<br />
*[[Chance News 102]]: 10/14/2014 to 12/31/2014<br />
*[[Chance News 101]]: 8/14/2014 to 10/13/2014<br />
*[[Chance News 100]]: 6/6/2014 to 8/13/2014<br />
*[[Chance News 99]]: 4/6/2014 to 6/5/2014<br />
*[[Chance News 98]]: 2/21/2014 to 4/5/2014<br />
*[[Chance News 97]]: 12/21/2013 to 2/20/2014<br />
*[[Chance News 96]]: 10/16/2013 to 12/20/2013 <br />
*[[Chance News 95]]: 8/21/2013 to 10/15/2013<br />
*[[Chance News 94]]: 6/10/2013 to 8/20/2013 <br />
*[[Chance News 93]]: 4/4/2013 to 6/9/2013<br />
*[[Chance News 92]]: 3/1/2013 to 4/3/2013 <br />
*[[Chance News 91]]: 1/15/2013 to 2/28/2013<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
*[[Chance News 90]]: 11/26/2012 to 1/14/2013<br />
*[[Chance News 89]]: 10/16/2012 to 11/25/2012<br />
*[[Chance News 88]]: 8/26/2012 to 10/15/2012 <br />
*[[Chance News 87]]: 7/19/2012 to 8/25/2012 <br />
*[[Chance News 86]]: 6/12/2012 to 7/18/2012<br />
*[[Chance News 85]]: 5/1/2012 to 6/11/2012 <br />
*[[Chance News 84]]: 4/1/2012 to 4/30/2012<br />
*[[Chance News 83]]: 3/1/2012 to 3/31/2012<br />
*[[Chance News 82]]: 2/14/2012 to 2/29/2012<br />
*[[Chance News 81]]: 1/18/2012 to 2/13/2012<br />
*[[Chance News 80]]: 12/23/2011 to 1/17/2012<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
*[[Chance News 79]]: 11/3/2011 to 12/22/2011<br />
*[[Chance News 78]]: 10/3/2011 to 11/2/2011 <br />
*[[Chance News 77]]: 9/6/2011 to 10/2/2011<br />
*[[Chance News 76]]: 8/10/2011 to 9/5/2011 <br />
*[[Chance News 75]]: 7/6/2011 to 8/9/2011 <br />
*[[Chance News 74]]: 6/6/2011 to 7/5/2011<br />
*[[Chance News 73]]: 5/1/2011 to 6/5/2011 <br />
*[[Chance News 72]]: 3/11/2011 to 4/30/2011<br />
*[[Chance News 71]]: 2/4/2011 to 3/10/2011<br />
*[[Chance News 70]]: 1/4/2011 to 2/3/2011<br />
*[[Chance News 69]]: 11/29/10 to 1/3/2011<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
*[[Chance News 68]]: 11/1/10 to 11/28/10<br />
*[[Chance News 67]]: 10/1/10 to 10/31/10 <br />
*[[Chance News 66]]: 8/13/10 to 9/30/10<br />
*[[Chance News 65]]: 6/28/10 to 8/12/10 <br />
*[[Chance News 64]]: 5/1/10 to 6/27/10 <br />
*[[Chance News 63]]: 4/1/10 to 4/30/10<br />
*[[Chance News 62]]: 3/5/10 to 3/31/10<br />
*[[Chance News 61]]: 2/11/10 to 3/4/10<br />
*[[Chance News 60]]: 1/28/10 to 2/11/10<br />
*[[Chance News 59]]: 12/24/09 to 1/26/10<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
*[[Chance News 58]]: 11/16/09 to 12/23/09<br />
*[[Chance News 57]]: 10/31/09 to 11/15/09<br />
*[[Chance News 56]]: 10/4/09 to 10/30/09<br />
*[[Chance News 55]]: 9/13/09 to 10/3/09<br />
*[[Chance News 54]]: 8/27/09 to 9/12/09<br />
*[[Chance News 53]]: 8/5/09 to 8/26/09<br />
*[[Chance News 52]]: 7/11/09 to 8/4/09<br />
*[[Chance News 51]]: 6/30/09 to 7/10/09<br />
*[[Chance News 50]]: 6/19/09 to 7/10/09<br />
*[[Chance News 49]]: 6/6/09 to 6/18/09<br />
*[[Chance News 48]]: 5/21/09 to 6/5/09<br />
*[[Chance News 47]]: 4/27/09 to 5/20/09<br />
*[[Chance News 46]]: 3/23/09 to 4/26 /09<br />
*[[Chance News 45]]: 2/15/09 to 3/22/09<br />
*[[Chance News 44]]: 1/21/09 to 2/14/09<br />
*[[Chance News 43]]: 12/20/08 to 2/8/09<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
*[[Chance News 42]]: 11/15/08 to 12/19/08<br />
*[[Chance News 41]]: 9/2/08 to 11/14/08<br />
*[[Chance News 40]]: 8/2/08 to 9/1/08<br />
*[[Chance News 39]]: 7/2/08 to 8/1/08<br />
*[[Chance News 38]]: 6/11/08 to 7/1/08<br />
*[[Chance News 37]]: 5/20/08 to 6/10/08<br />
*[[Chance News 36]]: 4/25/08 to 5/19/08<br />
*[[Chance News 35]]: 3/18/08 to 4/26/08<br />
*[[Chance News 34]]: 2/5/08 to 3/17/08<br />
*[[Chance News 33]]: 1/4/08 to 2/4/08<br />
*[[Chance News 32]]: 12/3/07 to 1/3/08<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
*[[Chance News 31]]: 11/5/07 to 12/2/07<br />
*[[Chance News 30]]: 9/7/07 to 11/4/07<br />
*[[Chance News 29]]: 7/26/07 to 9/6/07<br />
*[[Chance News 28]]: 6/20/07 to 7/25/07<br />
*[[Chance News 27]]: 5/10/07 to 6/19/07<br />
*[[Chance News 26]]: 3/17/07 to 5/10/07<br />
*[[Chance News 25]]: 3/16/07 to 4/2/07<br />
*[[Chance News 24]]: 2/11/07 to 3/15/07<br />
*[[Oscar winners do not live longer]]<br />
*[[Chance News 23]]:1/1/07 to 2/10/07<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
*[[Chance News 22]]: 11/02/06 to 12/31/06<br />
*[[Chance News 21]]: 9/28/06 to 11/01/06<br />
*[[Chance News 20]]: 8/28/06 to 9/27/06<br />
*[[Chance News 19]]: 7/4/06 to 8/27/06<br />
*[[Chance News 18]]: 6/6/06 to 7/3/06<br />
*[[Chance News 17]]: 5/5/06 to 6/5/06<br />
*[[Chance News 16]]: 4/4/06 to 5/4/06<br />
*[[Chance News 15]]: 3/4/06 to 4/3/06<br />
*[[Chance News 14]]: 2/14/06 to 3/3/06<br />
*[[Chance News 13]]:1/29/06 to 2/13/06<br />
*[[Chance News 12]]: 1/9/06 to 1/28/06<br />
*[[Chance News 11]]: 12/19/05 to 1/8/06<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
*[[Chance News 10]]: 11/28/05 to 12/18/05<br />
*[[Chance News 9]]: 11/1/05 to 11/27/05<br />
*[[Chance News 8]]:10/15/ 05 to 10/ 31/05 <br />
*[[Chance News 7]]: 10/1/105 to 10/14/05<br />
*[[Chance News 6]]: 9/15 to 9/30/05<br />
*[[Chance News 5]]: 9/1/05 to 9/14/05<br />
*[[Chance News 4]]: 8/1/05 to 8/30/05<br />
*[[Chance News 3]]: 7/1/05 to 7/31/05<br />
*[[Chance News 2]]: 6/1/05 to 6/30/05<br />
*[[Chance News 1]]: 5/1/05 to 5/31/05<br />
<br />
Chance News (pre-Wiki) archives from 1992 to 2004 can be accessed [http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/recent.html here].</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Main_Page&diff=22450Main Page2019-05-05T18:47:14Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:logo.gif |335px]]<br />
<br />
<!-- *[[Chance News 117]]: ??? to ??? &nbsp; ''under construction'' --><br />
*[[Chance News 116]]: January 1, 2019 to ??? &nbsp; ''under construction''<br />
*[[Chance News 115]]: 9/1/18 to 12/31/2018&nbsp; ''still under construction''<br />
*[[Chance News 114]]: 7/1/18 to 8/31/18 <br />
<br />
*[[Previous Chance News]]<br />
*[[Collected Forsooths]], 2005-2016<br />
<br />
Chance News reviews current stories in the news that involve probability or statistical concepts. It is freely available under the [http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html GNU Free Documentation License]. The latest version is always under construction, with the results consolidated into (approximately) monthly issues. <br />
<br />
'''E-mail notification'''. To be notified when a new issue is posted, click [https://web.middlebury.edu/database/banner/blm/subscriptions/FindMember.aspx here]. The List Manager will prompt you<br />
for your e-mail address. The first time you do this, you will be told that your address is not recognized---Click "Use this address anyway" to register. On subsequent visits, the List Manager will generate a message with instructions for updating your notification address or unsubscribing.<br />
<br />
'''Contributing stories'''. Chance News uses Wikimedia software to allow readers to add articles or change existing articles using the edit option. <br />
This requires an account and login. To obtain an editing account, send an email message to [mailto:wpeterso@middlebury.edu wpeterso@middlebury.edu] with subject "chance wiki account." You will receive an account confirmation in a few days from CAUSEweb. Instructions for changing your password are given below.<br />
<br />
How to change your password: When already logged in with username and password<br />
<br />
#Go to Special Pages (from left column, under toolbox heading).<br><br />
#Select Preferences.<br><br />
#Your User data window should show up. <br><br />
#Your real name, email and password can be changed<br><br />
<br />
Don't forget to click Save preferences at the bottom<br />
left, when done.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Main_Page&diff=22449Main Page2019-05-05T18:46:54Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:logo.gif |335px]]<br />
<br />
<!-- *[[Chance News 117]]: ??? to ??? &nbsp; ''under construction'' --><br />
*[[Chance News 116]]: January 1, 2019 to ??? &nbsp; ''under construction''<br />
*[[Chance News 115]]: 9/1/18 to 12/31/2018&nbsp; ''still under construction''<br />
*[[Chance News 114]]: 7/1/18 to 8/31/18 <br />
*[[Chance News 113]]: 1/1/18 to 6/30/18 <br />
<br />
*[[Previous Chance News]]<br />
*[[Collected Forsooths]], 2005-2016<br />
<br />
Chance News reviews current stories in the news that involve probability or statistical concepts. It is freely available under the [http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html GNU Free Documentation License]. The latest version is always under construction, with the results consolidated into (approximately) monthly issues. <br />
<br />
'''E-mail notification'''. To be notified when a new issue is posted, click [https://web.middlebury.edu/database/banner/blm/subscriptions/FindMember.aspx here]. The List Manager will prompt you<br />
for your e-mail address. The first time you do this, you will be told that your address is not recognized---Click "Use this address anyway" to register. On subsequent visits, the List Manager will generate a message with instructions for updating your notification address or unsubscribing.<br />
<br />
'''Contributing stories'''. Chance News uses Wikimedia software to allow readers to add articles or change existing articles using the edit option. <br />
This requires an account and login. To obtain an editing account, send an email message to [mailto:wpeterso@middlebury.edu wpeterso@middlebury.edu] with subject "chance wiki account." You will receive an account confirmation in a few days from CAUSEweb. Instructions for changing your password are given below.<br />
<br />
How to change your password: When already logged in with username and password<br />
<br />
#Go to Special Pages (from left column, under toolbox heading).<br><br />
#Select Preferences.<br><br />
#Your User data window should show up. <br><br />
#Your real name, email and password can be changed<br><br />
<br />
Don't forget to click Save preferences at the bottom<br />
left, when done.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_116&diff=22448Chance News 1162019-05-05T18:45:22Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Forsooth */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
"Madison, Wisconsin, had the largest percentage of millennials move to the region in 2017 at 75 percent, said a new study from the National Association of Realtors. The San Diego metro area had around 67.1 percent move to the area, said 2017 Census data analyzed by the association, making it the No. 13 destination for millennials out of 100 metros."<br />
<div align=right>in: [https://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/ct-life-where-millennials-are-moving-20190504-story.html New study tells where millennials are moving to and where they're not], ''Chicago Tribune'', 4 May 2019 </div><br />
<br />
<br />
Wow, millennials must really get around!<br />
<br />
Submitted by Nate Peterson<br />
<br />
==Item #1==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/28/opinion/august-birthdays-adhd.html The Link Between August Birthdays and A.D.H.D.]<br />
==Item #2==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/04/opinion/exponential-language-math.html Stop saying ‘exponential.’ Sincerely, a Math Nerd.]<br><br />
by Manil Suri, ''New York Times'', 4 March 2019<br />
<br />
The author of this op/ed piece is a mathematics professor who wishes people would stop using the word "exponential" to describe any kind of growth they find impressive. In fact, sometimes it is used to describe a single data point, with exponential treated as a synonym for big.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_116&diff=22447Chance News 1162019-05-05T18:43:38Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Forsooth */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
"Madison, Wisconsin, had the largest percentage of millennials move to the region in 2017 at 75 percent, said a new study from the National Association of Realtors. The San Diego metro area had around 67.1 percent move to the area, said 2017 Census data analyzed by the association, making it the No. 13 destination for millennials out of 100 metros."<br />
<div align=right>in: [https://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/ct-life-where-millennials-are-moving-20190504-story.html New study tells where millennials are moving to and where they're not], ''Chicago Tribune'', 4 May 2019 </div><br />
<br />
<br />
Wow, that's a lot of millenials!!<br />
<br />
Submitted by Nate Peterson<br />
<br />
==Item #1==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/28/opinion/august-birthdays-adhd.html The Link Between August Birthdays and A.D.H.D.]<br />
==Item #2==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/04/opinion/exponential-language-math.html Stop saying ‘exponential.’ Sincerely, a Math Nerd.]<br><br />
by Manil Suri, ''New York Times'', 4 March 2019<br />
<br />
The author of this op/ed piece is a mathematics professor who wishes people would stop using the word "exponential" to describe any kind of growth they find impressive. In fact, sometimes it is used to describe a single data point, with exponential treated as a synonym for big.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22446Chance News 1152019-05-05T18:40:21Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018<br />
==Quotations==<br />
"The Supreme Court does not compute. Or at least some of its members would rather not. The justices, the most powerful jurists in the land, seem to have a reluctance — even an allergy — to taking math and statistics seriously."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> --Oliver Roeder, in [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-supreme-court-is-allergic-to-math/ The Supreme Court is allergic to math], FiveThirtyEight blog, 17 October 2017 </div><br />
<br />
Sent to the Isolated Statisticians list by Jason Wilson<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical reasoning. The present story reports that the North Carolina Tar Heels have allowed opponents to shoot 357 of 940 (38.0% )on 3-point field goal attempts, "the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
''JAMA Pediatrics'', 6 August 2018<br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
Here is a [http://www.wktv.com/content/national/490156431.html news report] on the paper from a Utica NY television station.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."<br />
<br />
==Food research and p-hacking==<br />
[https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/09/26/651849441/cornell-food-researchers-downfall-raises-larger-questions-for-science Cornell Food Researcher's Downfall Raises Larger Questions For Science]<br><br />
by Brett Dahlberg, NPR, 26 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_116&diff=22445Chance News 1162019-03-08T03:04:57Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Item #2 */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Item #1==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/28/opinion/august-birthdays-adhd.html The Link Between August Birthdays and A.D.H.D.]<br />
==Item #2==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/04/opinion/exponential-language-math.html Stop saying ‘exponential.’ Sincerely, a Math Nerd.]<br><br />
by Manil Suri, ''New York Times'', 4 March 2019<br />
<br />
The author of this op/ed piece is a mathematics professor who wishes people would stop using the word "exponential" to describe any kind of growth they find impressive. In fact, sometimes it is used to describe a single data point, with exponential treated as a synonym for big.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_116&diff=22444Chance News 1162019-03-08T02:57:02Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Item #2 */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Item #1==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/28/opinion/august-birthdays-adhd.html The Link Between August Birthdays and A.D.H.D.]<br />
==Item #2==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/04/opinion/exponential-language-math.html Stop saying ‘exponential.’ Sincerely, a math nerd.]<br><br />
by Manil Suri, ''New York Times'', 4 March 2019</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22443Chance News 1152019-02-09T16:12:37Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Quotations */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
"The Supreme Court does not compute. Or at least some of its members would rather not. The justices, the most powerful jurists in the land, seem to have a reluctance — even an allergy — to taking math and statistics seriously."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> --Oliver Roeder, in [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-supreme-court-is-allergic-to-math/ The Supreme Court is allergic to math], FiveThirtyEight blog, 17 October 2017 </div><br />
<br />
Sent to the Isolated Statisticians list by Jason Wilson<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical reasoning. The present story reports that the North Carolina Tar Heels have allowed opponents to shoot 357 of 940 (38.0% )on 3-point field goal attempts, "the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
''JAMA Pediatrics'', 6 August 2018<br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
Here is a [http://www.wktv.com/content/national/490156431.html news report] on the paper from a Utica NY television station.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."<br />
<br />
==Food research and p-hacking==<br />
[https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/09/26/651849441/cornell-food-researchers-downfall-raises-larger-questions-for-science Cornell Food Researcher's Downfall Raises Larger Questions For Science]<br><br />
by Brett Dahlberg, NPR, 26 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22442Chance News 1152019-02-09T16:12:00Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Quotations */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
"The Supreme Court does not compute. Or at least some of its members would rather not. The justices, the most powerful jurists in the land, seem to have a reluctance — even an allergy — to taking math and statistics seriously."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> --Oliver Roeder, in [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-supreme-court-is-allergic-to-math/ The Supreme Court is allergic to math], FiveThirtyEight blog, 17 October 2017 </align><br />
<br />
Sent to the Isolated Statisticians list by Jason Wilson<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical reasoning. The present story reports that the North Carolina Tar Heels have allowed opponents to shoot 357 of 940 (38.0% )on 3-point field goal attempts, "the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
''JAMA Pediatrics'', 6 August 2018<br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
Here is a [http://www.wktv.com/content/national/490156431.html news report] on the paper from a Utica NY television station.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."<br />
<br />
==Food research and p-hacking==<br />
[https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/09/26/651849441/cornell-food-researchers-downfall-raises-larger-questions-for-science Cornell Food Researcher's Downfall Raises Larger Questions For Science]<br><br />
by Brett Dahlberg, NPR, 26 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22441Chance News 1152019-02-09T16:11:41Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Quotations */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
"The Supreme Court does not compute. Or at least some of its members would rather not. The justices, the most powerful jurists in the land, seem to have a reluctance — even an allergy — to taking math and statistics seriously."<br />
<br />
<div align=right> -- Oliver Roeder, in [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-supreme-court-is-allergic-to-math/ The Supreme Court is allergic to math], FiveThirtyEight blog, 17 October 2017 </align><br />
<br />
Sent to the Isolated Statisticians list by Jason Wilson<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical reasoning. The present story reports that the North Carolina Tar Heels have allowed opponents to shoot 357 of 940 (38.0% )on 3-point field goal attempts, "the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
''JAMA Pediatrics'', 6 August 2018<br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
Here is a [http://www.wktv.com/content/national/490156431.html news report] on the paper from a Utica NY television station.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."<br />
<br />
==Food research and p-hacking==<br />
[https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/09/26/651849441/cornell-food-researchers-downfall-raises-larger-questions-for-science Cornell Food Researcher's Downfall Raises Larger Questions For Science]<br><br />
by Brett Dahlberg, NPR, 26 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22440Sandbox2018-12-25T16:18:07Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* In progress */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/magazine/placebo-effect-medicine.html What if the Placebo Effect Isn’t a Trick?]<br><br />
by Gary Greenberg, ''New York Times Magazine'', 7 November 2018<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br><br />
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018<br />
<br />
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies<br />
<br />
Laura noted that <br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
President Trump has asserted that the actual number sis[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1040217897703026689 6 to 18].<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
<br />
:[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/?ex_cid=538twitter We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina]<br><br />
:by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015<br />
<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned]<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Main_Page&diff=22439Main Page2018-11-29T00:49:57Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:logo.gif |335px]]<br />
<br />
<!-- *[[Chance News 117]]: ??? to ??? &nbsp; ''under construction'' --><br />
<!--*[[Chance News 116]]: ??? to ??? &nbsp; ''under construction'' --><br />
*[[Chance News 115]]: 9/1/18 to ??? &nbsp; ''under construction''<br />
*[[Chance News 114]]: 7/1/18 to 8/31/18 <br />
*[[Chance News 113]]: 1/1/18 to 6/30/18 <br />
<br />
*[[Previous Chance News]]<br />
*[[Collected Forsooths]], 2005-2016<br />
<br />
Chance News reviews current stories in the news that involve probability or statistical concepts. It is freely available under the [http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html GNU Free Documentation License]. The latest version is always under construction, with the results consolidated into (approximately) monthly issues. <br />
<br />
'''E-mail notification'''. To be notified when a new issue is posted, click [https://web.middlebury.edu/database/banner/blm/subscriptions/FindMember.aspx here]. The List Manager will prompt you<br />
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'''Contributing stories'''. Chance News uses Wikimedia software to allow readers to add articles or change existing articles using the edit option. <br />
This requires an account and login. To obtain an editing account, send an email message to [mailto:wpeterso@middlebury.edu wpeterso@middlebury.edu] with subject "chance wiki account." You will receive an account confirmation in a few days from CAUSEweb. Instructions for changing your password are given below.<br />
<br />
How to change your password: When already logged in with username and password<br />
<br />
#Go to Special Pages (from left column, under toolbox heading).<br><br />
#Select Preferences.<br><br />
#Your User data window should show up. <br><br />
#Your real name, email and password can be changed<br><br />
<br />
Don't forget to click Save preferences at the bottom<br />
left, when done.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_116&diff=22438Chance News 1162018-11-29T00:49:17Z<p>Bill Peterson: Created page with "==Quotations== ==Forsooth== ==Item #1== [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/28/opinion/august-birthdays-adhd.html The Link Between August Birthdays and A.D.H.D.] ==Item #2=="</p>
<hr />
<div>==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Item #1==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/28/opinion/august-birthdays-adhd.html The Link Between August Birthdays and A.D.H.D.]<br />
==Item #2==</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Main_Page&diff=22437Main Page2018-11-29T00:47:43Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[Image:logo.gif |335px]]<br />
<br />
<!-- *[[Chance News 117]]: ??? to ??? &nbsp; ''under construction'' --><br />
*[[Chance News 116]]: ??? to ??? &nbsp; ''under construction''<br />
*[[Chance News 115]]: 9/1/18 to ??? &nbsp; ''under construction''<br />
*[[Chance News 114]]: 7/1/18 to 8/31/18 <br />
*[[Chance News 113]]: 1/1/18 to 6/30/18 <br />
<br />
*[[Previous Chance News]]<br />
*[[Collected Forsooths]], 2005-2016<br />
<br />
Chance News reviews current stories in the news that involve probability or statistical concepts. It is freely available under the [http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html GNU Free Documentation License]. The latest version is always under construction, with the results consolidated into (approximately) monthly issues. <br />
<br />
'''E-mail notification'''. To be notified when a new issue is posted, click [https://web.middlebury.edu/database/banner/blm/subscriptions/FindMember.aspx here]. The List Manager will prompt you<br />
for your e-mail address. The first time you do this, you will be told that your address is not recognized---Click "Use this address anyway" to register. On subsequent visits, the List Manager will generate a message with instructions for updating your notification address or unsubscribing.<br />
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'''Contributing stories'''. Chance News uses Wikimedia software to allow readers to add articles or change existing articles using the edit option. <br />
This requires an account and login. To obtain an editing account, send an email message to [mailto:wpeterso@middlebury.edu wpeterso@middlebury.edu] with subject "chance wiki account." You will receive an account confirmation in a few days from CAUSEweb. Instructions for changing your password are given below.<br />
<br />
How to change your password: When already logged in with username and password<br />
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#Go to Special Pages (from left column, under toolbox heading).<br><br />
#Select Preferences.<br><br />
#Your User data window should show up. <br><br />
#Your real name, email and password can be changed<br><br />
<br />
Don't forget to click Save preferences at the bottom<br />
left, when done.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22436Chance News 1152018-09-27T19:42:24Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Food research and reproducibility */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical reasoning. The present story reports that the North Carolina Tar Heels have allowed opponents to shoot 357 of 940 (38.0% )on 3-point field goal attempts, "the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
''JAMA Pediatrics'', 6 August 2018<br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
Here is a [http://www.wktv.com/content/national/490156431.html news report] on the paper from a Utica NY television station.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."<br />
<br />
==Food research and p-hacking==<br />
[https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/09/26/651849441/cornell-food-researchers-downfall-raises-larger-questions-for-science Cornell Food Researcher's Downfall Raises Larger Questions For Science]<br><br />
by Brett Dahlberg, NPR, 26 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22435Chance News 1152018-09-27T19:40:24Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Food research and reproducibility */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical reasoning. The present story reports that the North Carolina Tar Heels have allowed opponents to shoot 357 of 940 (38.0% )on 3-point field goal attempts, "the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
''JAMA Pediatrics'', 6 August 2018<br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
Here is a [http://www.wktv.com/content/national/490156431.html news report] on the paper from a Utica NY television station.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."<br />
<br />
==Food research and reproducibility==<br />
[https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/09/26/651849441/cornell-food-researchers-downfall-raises-larger-questions-for-science Cornell Food Researcher's Downfall Raises Larger Questions For Science]<br><br />
by Brett Dahlberg, NPR, 26 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22434Chance News 1152018-09-27T19:40:00Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical reasoning. The present story reports that the North Carolina Tar Heels have allowed opponents to shoot 357 of 940 (38.0% )on 3-point field goal attempts, "the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
''JAMA Pediatrics'', 6 August 2018<br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
Here is a [http://www.wktv.com/content/national/490156431.html news report] on the paper from a Utica NY television station.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."<br />
<br />
==Food research and reproducibility==<br />
[]https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/09/26/651849441/cornell-food-researchers-downfall-raises-larger-questions-for-science Cornell Food Researcher's Downfall Raises Larger Questions For Science]<br><br />
by Brett Dahlberg, NPR, 26 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22433Chance News 1152018-09-23T00:57:05Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Some basketball forsooths? */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical reasoning. The present story reports that the North Carolina Tar Heels have allowed opponents to shoot 357 of 940 (38.0% )on 3-point field goal attempts, "the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
''JAMA Pediatrics'', 6 August 2018<br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
Here is a [http://www.wktv.com/content/national/490156431.html news report] on the paper from a Utica NY television station.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22432Chance News 1152018-09-23T00:54:10Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Some basketball forsooths? */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical reasoning. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
''JAMA Pediatrics'', 6 August 2018<br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
Here is a [http://www.wktv.com/content/national/490156431.html news report] on the paper from a Utica NY television station.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22431Chance News 1152018-09-23T00:21:17Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
''JAMA Pediatrics'', 6 August 2018<br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
Here is a [http://www.wktv.com/content/national/490156431.html news report] on the paper from a Utica NY television station.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22430Chance News 1152018-09-23T00:17:12Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
''JAMA Pediatrics'', 6 August 2018<br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22429Chance News 1152018-09-23T00:14:42Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.<br />
<br />
== How to persuade children to eat more vegetables and fruit==<br />
<br />
[https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2694796 Association of Plate Design With Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables Among Preschool Children]<br><br />
<br />
Abstract: Children in the United States do not consume enough fruits and vegetables. One potential approach to change health behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption is to change the decision environment to make certain behavior more likely without altering incentives. For example, placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children. This potentially powerful intervention, however, has not been explored among children in early childhood (3-8 years of age), and dietary behavior during this period can be associated with life-long dietary practices. This study addresses this gap and tests the association between use of plates with fruit and vegetable pictures and consumption of fruits and vegetables among preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age.<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
1) How would you design a study to test the hypothesis that placing pictures of fruits and vegetables on lunch trays is associated with an increase in fruit and vegetable consumption among school-aged children? <br><br />
2) What is your opinion on the study design as presented in the JAMA paper<br><br />
3) If you have access to the full paper, comment on the results obtained.<br />
<br />
==Murder rates and temperature==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/upshot/a-rise-in-murder-lets-talk-about-the-weather.html A rise in murder? Let’s talk about the weather.]<br><br />
by Jeff Asher, ''New York Times'', TheUpshot blog, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
"The correlation between heat and crime suggests the need for more research on shootings in American cities."</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22427Chance News 1152018-09-21T20:22:21Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018<br />
<br />
==DNA forensics==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/the-dangers-of-dna-testing.html The dangers of DNA testing]<br><br />
''New York Times'', 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: In a new study, 74 out of 108 crime laboratories implicated an innocent person in a hypothetical bank robbery.</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22426Chance News 1152018-09-21T18:36:38Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* More on alcohol risks */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe. This story describes how the thinking on moderate drinking has evolved.<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/21/health/global-alcohol-deaths-who-intl/index.html 1 in 20 deaths globally is a result of alcohol use]<br><br />
by Nina Avramova, CNN, 21 September 2018<br />
<br />
This according to [http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/en/ Global status report on alcohol and health 2018] from the World Health Organization (WHO). in the [http://www.who.int/news-room/detail/21-09-2018-harmful-use-of-alcohol-kills-more-than-3-million-people-each-year-most-of-them-men news release] accompanying the report, we read<br />
<blockquote><br />
Of all deaths attributable to alcohol, 28% were due to injuries, such as those from traffic crashes, self-harm and interpersonal violence; 21% due to digestive disorders; 19% due to cardiovascular diseases, and the remainder due to infectious diseases, cancers, mental disorders and other health conditions.<br />
</blockquote><br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22425Sandbox2018-09-17T20:12:27Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Hurricane Maria deaths */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br><br />
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018<br />
<br />
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies<br />
<br />
Laura noted that <br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
President Trump has asserted that the actual number sis[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1040217897703026689 6 to 18].<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
<br />
:[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/?ex_cid=538twitter We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina]<br><br />
:by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015<br />
<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
<br />
[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/google-tests-changes-to-its-search-algorithm-how-search-works.html We sat in on an internal Google meeting where they talked about changing the search algorithm — here's what we learned]<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22424Sandbox2018-09-17T18:26:19Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Hurricane Maria deaths */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br><br />
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018<br />
<br />
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies<br />
<br />
Laura noted that <br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
President Trump has asserted that the actual number sis[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1040217897703026689 6 to 18].<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
<br />
:[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/?ex_cid=538twitter We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina]<br><br />
:by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015<br />
<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22423Sandbox2018-09-17T18:24:14Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Hurricane Maria deaths */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br><br />
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018<br />
<br />
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies<br />
<br />
Laura noted that <br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
<br />
:[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/?ex_cid=538twitter We sttill don’t know how many people died because of Katrina]<br><br />
:by Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight, 26 August 2015<br />
<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22422Chance News 1152018-09-16T23:48:51Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* What's going on in this graph */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe.<br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html first installment] for the fall.<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22421Chance News 1152018-09-16T23:48:01Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* More on alcohol risks */</p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks Alcohol risks] from the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe.<br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the first graph for the fall:<br />
<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html]<br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22420Chance News 1152018-09-16T23:47:33Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks] in the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe.<br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
Here is the first graph for the fall:<br />
<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html]<br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22419Chance News 1152018-09-16T23:45:32Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks] in the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe.<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
<br />
==What's going on in this graph==<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-sept-12-2018.html]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22418Chance News 1152018-09-16T23:42:47Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==More on alcohol risks==<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br><br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
<br />
In [https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_114#Alcohol_risks] in the last installment of Chance News 114, we looked at a recent study on alcohol risks which announced the surprising finding that no level of drinking was safe.<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
----<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22417Chance News 1152018-09-16T23:05:49Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
----<br />
==Life expectancy by neighborhood==<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Chance_News_115&diff=22416Chance News 1152018-09-16T23:04:51Z<p>Bill Peterson: </p>
<hr />
<div>September 1, 2018 to ...<br />
==Quotations==<br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Some basketball forsooths?==<br />
[https://www.tarheelblog.com/2018/9/4/17801760/unc-tar-heels-basketball-three-point-defense-analytics-roy-williams-rings-dont-lie-duke-blue-devils UNC’s generous 3-point defense is a cost of its championship style]<br><br />
by Quintin Schwab, Tar Heel Blog, 4 September 2018<br />
<br />
Popular sports reporting often includes dubious statistical references. The above story reports that the "[North] Carolina [Tar Heels] allowed opponents to make 357 of 940 attempts from deep for a 38.0% mark, all of which were the worst figures of any ACC team in at least the last nine years (122 individual team seasons)."<br />
<br />
Here are two statistical passages from the post:<br />
* "The stat is understood in the analytics world as one of the more “fluky” sports data points — Ken Pomeroy famously declared that defending a three-point shot doesn’t matter so much as limiting attempts, and with a shot that goes in, on average, about 35% of the time, there’s a ton of variability just by the low hit percentage of the endeavor."<br />
<br />
* Gives a list of ACC conference teams showing, for the last nine seasons, the average number of successful 3-point shots allowed/ average number of attempts (total number of games).<br />
::1. '''Duke: 5.1/16.3 (331 games)''';<br />
::2. Virginia: 5.8/18.0 (305 games);<br />
::3. Clemson: 6.0/18.0 (294 games);<br />
::4. Louisville: 6.1/19.2 (137 games);<br />
::5. North Carolina State: 6.2/18.7 (309 games);<br />
::6. Maryland: 6.3/19.2 (168 games);<br />
::7. Georgia Tech: 6.3/18.8 (298 games);<br />
::8. Miami: 6.4/19.1 (309 games);<br />
::9. Pittsburgh: 6.6/19.3 (168 games);<br />
::10. Boston College: 6.7/18.8 (292 games);<br />
::11. Florida State: 6.9/20.4 (308 games);<br />
::12. Wake Forest: 6.9/19.9 (285 games);<br />
::13. Virginia Tech: 7.0/21.2 (298 games);<br />
::14. Notre Dame: 7.1/20.1 (178 games);<br />
::15. Syracuse: 7.4/22.8 (173 games);<br />
::16. '''North Carolina: 7.5/22.0''' (337 games).<br />
:The blog says, "When the analysis is on a per-game basis, it really highlights how close most of the teams are. In general, an ACC team gives up between six and seven 3-point makes out of about 19 tries per contest. The outliers, or at least the poles, to avoid claiming statistical significance, are, obviously, Duke and North Carolina."<br />
<br />
'''Discussion'''<br><br />
For each of these passages, what is the author trying to say? Does the statistical language support the point?<br />
<br />
==New data search tool ==<br />
Eric Reyes sent this link to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06201-x Google unveils search engine for open data]<br />
:by Davide Castelvecchi, ''Nature News'', 5 September 2018<br />
<br />
----<br />
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/14/wrong-neighborhood-can-take-plus-years-off-your-life-average/?utm_term=.01b677cfd4cf The Strawberry Capital of the World is the early death capital of the U.S.: lessons from a landmark dataset]<br><br />
by Andrew van Dam, ''Washington Post'', 14 September 2018</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22415Sandbox2018-09-16T20:43:03Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Hurricane Maria deaths */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
:[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br><br />
:by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018<br />
<br />
The article is subtitled: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies<br />
<br />
Laura noted that <br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22414Sandbox2018-09-16T20:41:37Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Hurricane Maria deaths */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
<br />
[Why counting casualties after a hurricane is so hard]<br />
by Jo Craven McGinty, Wall Street Journal, 7 September 2018<br />
<br />
Subtitle: Indirect deaths—such as those caused by gaps in medication—can occur months after a storm, complicating tallies<br />
<br />
<br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22413Sandbox2018-09-16T20:37:55Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Hurricane Maria deaths */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
The source of the 4645 figure is a [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972 NEJM article]. Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22412Sandbox2018-09-16T20:35:44Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Hurricane Maria deaths */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
:by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Petersonhttps://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&diff=22411Sandbox2018-09-16T20:35:29Z<p>Bill Peterson: /* Hurricane Maria deaths */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
<br />
==Forsooth==<br />
<br />
==Quotations==<br />
“We know that people tend to overestimate the frequency of well-publicized, spectacular<br />
events compared with more commonplace ones; this is a well-understood phenomenon in<br />
the literature of risk assessment and leads to the truism that when statistics plays folklore,<br />
folklore always wins in a rout.”<br />
<div align=right>-- Donald Kennedy (former president of Stanford University), ''Academic Duty'', Harvard University Press, 1997, p.17</div><br />
<br />
==In progress==<br />
<br />
==Hurricane Maria deaths==<br />
Laura Kapitula sent the following to the Isolated Statisticians e-mail list:<br />
:[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/?utm_term=.0a5e6e48bf11 Did 4,645 people die in Hurricane Maria? Nope.]<br><br />
by Glenn Kessler, ''Washington Post'', 1 June 2018<br />
<br />
Point estimate, the 95% confidence interval ran from 793 to 8498.<br />
<br />
The ''Post'' article notes that Puerto Rican official had asked researchers at George Washington University to do an estimate of the death toll. That work is not complete.<br />
[https://prstudy.publichealth.gwu.edu/ George Washington University study]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/climate/hurricane-evacuation-path-forecasts.html These 3 Hurricane Misconceptions Can Be Dangerous. Scientists Want to Clear Them Up.]<br><br />
[https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season]<br><br />
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone]<br />
----<br />
[https://www.popsci.com/moderate-drinking-benefits-risks Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed.]<br />
''Popular Science'', 10 September 2018 <br />
----<br />
[https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/30/googling-the-news Googling the news]<br><br />
''Economist'', 1 September 2018<br />
----<br />
[http://www.wyso.org/post/stats-stories-reading-writing-and-risk-literacy Reading , Writing and Risk Literacy]<br />
<br />
[http://www.riskliteracy.org/]<br />
-----<br />
[https://twitter.com/i/moments/1025000711539572737?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email Today is the deadliest day of the year for car wrecks in the U.S.]<br />
<br />
==Some math doodles==<br />
<math>P \left({A_1 \cup A_2}\right) = P\left({A_1}\right) + P\left({A_2}\right) -P \left({A_1 \cap A_2}\right)</math><br />
<br />
<math>P(E) = {n \choose k} p^k (1-p)^{ n-k}</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|H)</math><br />
<br />
<math>\hat{p}(H|HH)</math><br />
<br />
==Accidental insights==<br />
<br />
My collective understanding of Power Laws would fit beneath the shallow end of the long tail. Curiosity, however, easily fills the fat end. I long have been intrigued by the concept and the surprisingly common appearance of power laws in varied natural, social and organizational dynamics. But, am I just seeing a statistical novelty or is there meaning and utility in Power Law relationships? Here’s a case in point.<br />
<br />
While carrying a pair of 10 lb. hand weights one, by chance, slipped from my grasp and fell onto a piece of ceramic tile I had left on the carpeted floor. The fractured tile was inconsequential, meant for the trash. <br />
<center>[[File:BrokenTile.jpg | 400px]]</center><br />
As I stared, slightly annoyed, at the mess, a favorite maxim of the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, came to mind: “On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, turn to yourself and ask what power you have to put it to use.” Could this array of large and small polygons form a Power Law? With curiosity piqued, I collected all the fragments and measured the area of each piece.<br />
<br />
<center><br />
{| class="wikitable"<br />
|-<br />
! Piece !! Sq. Inches !! % of Total<br />
|-<br />
| 1 || 43.25 || 31.9%<br />
|-<br />
| 2 || 35.25 ||26.0%<br />
|-<br />
| 3 || 23.25 || 17.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 4 || 14.10 || 10.4%<br />
|-<br />
| 5 || 7.10 || 5.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 6 || 4.70 || 3.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 7 || 3.60 || 2.7%<br />
|-<br />
| 8 || 3.03 || 2.2%<br />
|-<br />
| 9 || 0.66 || 0.5%<br />
|-<br />
| 10 || 0.61 || 0.5%<br />
|}<br />
</center><br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot1.png | 500px]]</center><br />
The data and plot look like a Power Law distribution. The first plot is an exponential fit of percent total area. The second plot is same data on a log normal format. Clue: Ok, data fits a straight line. I found myself again in the shallow end of the knowledge curve. Does the data reflect a Power Law or something else, and if it does what does it reflect? What insights can I gain from this accident? Favorite maxims of Epictetus and Pasteur echoed in my head: <br />
“On the occasion of every accident that befalls you, remember to turn to yourself and inquire what power you have to turn it to use” and “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”<br />
<br />
<center>[[File:Montante_plot2.png | 500px]]</center><br />
<br />
My “prepared” mind searched for answers, leading me down varied learning paths. Tapping the power of networks, I dropped a note to Chance News editor Bill Peterson. His quick web search surfaced a story from ''Nature News'' on research by Hans Herrmann, et. al. [http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040227/full/news040223-11.html Shattered eggs reveal secrets of explosions]. As described there, researchers have found power-law relationships for the fragments produced by shattering a pane of glass or breaking a solid object, such as a stone. Seems there is a science underpinning how things break and explode; potentially useful in Forensic reconstructions.<br />
Bill also provided a link to [http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poweRlaw/vignettes/poweRlaw.pdf a vignette from CRAN] describing a maximum likelihood procedure for fitting a Power Law relationship. I am now learning my way through that.<br />
<br />
Submitted by William Montante<br />
<br />
----</div>Bill Peterson